On Friday, JPMorgan (NYSE:JPM) revised its stance on Peloton Interactive (NASDAQ:PTON), downgrading the stock from Overweight to Neutral and adjusting the price target to $5.00, a decrease from the previous $7.00.
The move comes despite Peloton's achievement of positive adjusted EBITDA and free cash flow for the second consecutive quarter and its anticipation of over $200 million in annualized cost savings by FY25, attributed to its restructuring efforts and more efficient media spending.
The connected fitness company's improved bottom line is set against a backdrop of year-over-year declines in the industry, although these declines are reportedly easing.
Current economic conditions continue to impact consumer demand, and Peloton's focus on profitability has led to a more conservative revenue outlook for FY25.
This outlook takes into account the expected declines in hardware sales, the broader macroeconomic challenges, a reduction in marketing expenditures, and an increase in monthly churn rate year over year.
Despite these headwinds, JPMorgan acknowledged the company's successful debt refinancing and ongoing cost-cutting measures. The firm also recognized Peloton's strong brand presence and the value of its subscriber base, which maintains a churn rate of less than 2% per month.
Nonetheless, the analyst cited the stock's significant 35% surge on Thursday, contrasted with the S&P 500's 1% drop, as a reason for the rating change.
The firm expressed caution regarding Peloton's path to growth in connected fitness subscriptions and revenue amid the prevailing industry and economic pressures.
In other recent news, Peloton Interactive reported its financial results for the fiscal year that ended June 30, 2024. The company emphasized a focus on improved margins, despite anticipating a 9% year-over-year decrease in both subscribers and revenue.
Peloton's efforts to streamline operations and achieve $200 million in savings by the end of fiscal year 2025 were highlighted by Needham, which maintained a Hold rating on the company.
BMO Capital also maintained a Market Perform rating, recognizing Peloton's strategic shift towards profitability over revenue growth. The firm suggested that this approach could be beneficial if managed urgently due to the current downward trend in subscription income and the rise in customer turnover. Meanwhile, TD Cowen maintained its Hold rating, forecasting a slight year-over-year decrease in Connected Fitness subscriptions.
Peloton recently completed a substantial refinancing plan, securing $1.35 billion through new credit facilities and private offerings. This includes a $1 billion five-year term loan facility, an upsized private offering of convertible senior notes totaling $350 million due in 2029, and a new $100 million five-year revolving credit facility with JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS).
Analyst firms including Telsey Advisory Group, Wolfe Research, and JMP Securities maintained neutral ratings on Peloton, focusing on the company's operational changes, cost discipline, and potential growth challenges. These developments indicate Peloton's ongoing efforts to navigate its financial and operational challenges.
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