Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) has reiterated its underweight rating on shares of Affirm Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:AFRM) with a steady price target of $20.00. The firm remains cautious, noting that consensus expectations for the company's fiscal year 2025 may be overly optimistic.
Despite trends from partners like Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) and Shopify (NYSE:SHOP) that could drive volume growth and potential benefits from lower interest rates on funding costs, Morgan Stanley expressed skepticism. The analyst pointed out the challenges Affirm may face in maintaining or increasing yields on its platform portfolio to support the required return on loan capital (RLTC) expansion.
Affirm's past performance has exceeded initial margin outlooks, significantly outperforming their initial adjusted operating income (AOI) margin predictions for fiscal year 2024. The current consensus anticipates AOI margins of 16.6% for fiscal year 2025, which is higher than Morgan Stanley's estimate of 14.2% and above the management's stated target of less than 15% AOI margins when revenue growth is over 20%.
The firm's analysis suggests that while the consensus estimates for RLTC and AOI margins are not aggressive on an annual basis, envisioning significant upside to these estimates is difficult. This is particularly true given the potential economic environment if interest rates decrease faster than anticipated, which could lead to higher unemployment rates.
Affirm Holdings has previously demonstrated a pattern of conservative guidance, followed by beating and raising estimates. However, Morgan Stanley's recent discussions with investors indicate that while Affirm is expected to provide a conservative outlook for fiscal year 2025, there are concerns about whether the company can continue to outperform at the same rate, especially after the lapse of high annual percentage rates (APRs) that previously benefited interest income.
In other recent news, Affirm has made significant strides in expanding its partnerships and improving its financial position. The company has partnered with Hotels.com and RONA, allowing customers to split their payments over time, thereby enhancing their purchasing power. Affirm also increased its borrowing capacity from $205 million to $330 million, reflecting its commitment to long-term growth.
Affirm's partnerships extend its reach in both the travel and home improvement industries, adding to its network of 292,000 retail partners. The company's collaboration with Hotels.com is an extension of its existing relationship with Expedia (NASDAQ:EXPE) Group, where it serves as the exclusive buy now, pay later provider for Expedia and Vrbo. The partnership with RONA further extends Affirm's reach in the Canadian market.
InvestingPro Insights
In light of Morgan Stanley's cautious stance on Affirm Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ: AFRM), real-time data and insights from InvestingPro further illuminate the financial landscape of the company. Notably, Affirm has experienced a robust revenue growth of 40.05% in the last twelve months as of Q3 2024, outpacing many industry peers. This growth is further underscored by a significant quarterly revenue increase of 51.23% in Q3 2024. Despite these strong growth metrics, the company's current P/E Ratio stands at -14.24, reflecting the market's skepticism about Affirm's near-term profitability, consistent with Morgan Stanley's analysis.
InvestingPro Tips highlight that while analysts have revised their earnings upwards for the upcoming period, they do not expect the company to be profitable this year. Additionally, Affirm's stock price has been quite volatile, with a notable high return over the last year of 76.84%, which may attract investors looking for growth potential in their portfolio. However, the absence of dividend payments emphasizes the company's focus on reinvesting earnings into its growth strategy.
For investors seeking a deeper dive into Affirm's financials and future outlook, further InvestingPro Tips are available, offering a comprehensive analysis of the company's performance and potential investment opportunities. As of now, there are six additional tips listed on InvestingPro for Affirm Holdings Inc., which can be accessed for more detailed guidance.
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