On Friday, Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) updated its outlook on Guidewire Software Inc (NYSE:GWRE), increasing the price target to $182 from the previous $170 while maintaining a Conviction Buy rating on the stock.
The adjustment follows Guidewire's after-hours trading indication, which showed a 9% rise after the company reported its annual recurring revenue (ARR) 1% higher than expected, subscription and support revenue 2% above estimates, and free cash flow (FCF) 37% greater than anticipated, according to FactSet data.
Guidewire's management has reiterated its fiscal year 2025 ARR goal of $1 billion, supported by robust demand trends. The company secured 16 cloud deals in the quarter, contributing to a total of 42 for the year, marking a 14% increase year over year.
The growth in fully ramped ARR was 19%, up from 17% the previous year. Goldman Sachs believes these achievements position Guidewire to sustain strong ARR growth in the coming years, with the potential for acceleration depending on new deal flow and customer migrations.
The analyst highlighted that true-ups for Digital WorkPlace (DWP) are positively impacting Guidewire's financial model, offering a multi-year tailwind as customers renew their agreements on a staggered schedule. The company's guidance suggests that gross margins and cash flow are expected to continue expanding into fiscal year 2025.
While EBIT margin growth may be moderate due to increased investments in research and development, which are projected to grow by 14% year over year, these investments are seen as crucial for enhancing Guidewire's product offerings and reinforcing its leadership in the property and casualty (P&C) insurance software market.
In light of the positive guidance and financial performance, Goldman Sachs has revised upward its top-line and cash flow projections for Guidewire. The firm's confidence in Guidewire's ability to deliver durable ARR growth and extend its market lead has led to the raised 12-month price target.
In other recent news, Guidewire Software has seen a significant increase in its annual recurring revenue (ARR), achieving a year-over-year growth of 15%, surpassing the consensus estimate.
This robust performance has led to several financial firms, including Baird, DA Davidson, and Oppenheimer, raising their price targets for Guidewire. Notably, Baird raised its price target from $152 to $165, highlighting the company's advancements in cloud migration and notable rise in free cash flow per share.
Similarly, DA Davidson increased its price target for Guidewire from $142 to $168, maintaining a positive outlook based on the company's potential to meet or exceed both its own and consensus forecasts in the upcoming fiscal fourth-quarter results. Oppenheimer also maintained an Outperform rating on Guidewire and increased the price target to $170, citing a balanced risk/reward scenario and strong market dynamics.
Alongside these revisions, Guidewire's subscription gross margins reached 65%, exceeding the consensus of 64%, and the company's operating cash flow (OCF) projections were raised significantly to between $130 million and $150 million.
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