On Tuesday, Evercore ISI maintained a positive outlook on General Motors (NYSE:GM) shares, reiterating an Outperform rating and a $55.00 price target. The firm acknowledged GM's strong performance in the third quarter, with earnings per share (EPS) reaching $2.96 compared to the consensus estimate of $2.45.
This result was attributed to an EBIT (Earnings Before Interest and Taxes) of $4.1 billion, surpassing both Evercore ISI's and the consensus projections of $3.7 billion and $3.4 billion, respectively.
The automotive giant also raised its full-year EBIT and EPS forecasts to $14-15 billion and $10-10.50, respectively, and increased its free cash flow (FCF) projection by $2-3 billion to $12.5-$13.5 billion. According to Evercore ISI, investor expectations were largely aligned with the high end of GM's guidance, and the raised price and FCF figures were seen as a welcome bonus.
The analysis further delved into the impact of share buybacks, suggesting that an annual buyback of approximately $5 billion (around 100 million shares) could counterbalance a $1 billion cyclical or price-related EBIT loss, thus maintaining EPS in the range of $10-10.50 through 2025 or 2026, excluding potential policy changes from a Trump administration.
Looking ahead to 2025, there is some confusion among investors regarding GM's EBIT path, particularly in light of the company's Analyst Day disclosure, which hinted at a $2-4 billion tailwind from reduced electric vehicle (EV) losses year-over-year. The firm compared this to Ford (NYSE:F)'s projected $5 billion-plus EV loss, noting that selling fewer EVs doesn't eliminate the fixed cost of EV losses.
Evercore ISI also expressed concerns about the potential impact of a Trump election victory on GM, citing a 60-70% implied odds of Trump winning. The potential elimination of the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), reduction in Zero Emission Vehicle (ZEV) credits, and the possibility of tariffs on Mexican imports were identified as negative factors for GM and the Detroit Three automakers' sentiment in the near term.
To mitigate the risks associated with the upcoming U.S. election, Evercore ISI's Options team suggested a GM-specific options hedge. They proposed a protective trade involving November put spreads at $47-$40 to safeguard against the downside risk from proposed Trump tariffs, with the potential for as much as a 100% return, noting that every 10% tariff on Mexican imports could equate to a $2-plus impact on GM's EPS.
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