On Monday, Citi issued a positive outlook for 360 Finance, Inc. (NASDAQ:QFIN) stock, anticipating the company to lead its peers in non-GAAP earnings growth for the first quarter of 2024.
The forecast suggests a sequential quarterly increase of 3% and a substantial year-over-year gain of 21% for QFIN, attributing the growth to an improved take rate that is expected to more than compensate for any weakness in loan volume.
Citi's analysis places FinVolution Group (NYSE:NYSE:FINV) in a moderate position, with a modest quarter-over-quarter growth of 1%, though it predicts a 21% decline year-over-year due to a high comparison base from the same quarter in the previous year.
However, adjusting for a significant one-time provision write-back from the first quarter of 2023, FinVolution's adjusted earnings growth is seen as more favorable, with a 1% increase from the previous quarter and a 9% rise year-over-year.
The outlook for LexinFintech Holdings Ltd. (NASDAQ:LX) is less optimistic, with Citi projecting the company to experience a 7% decline in earnings from the previous quarter and a 29% drop compared to the same period last year.
The anticipated weaker performance for LexinFintech is mainly attributed to asset quality issues and the need for further investment loss provisions, albeit at a lower level than the substantial provision made in the fourth quarter of 2023.
Citi's preference among the consumer online lenders is clear, ranking 360 Finance above FinVolution and LexinFintech. The firm's assessment underscores the varying fortunes of companies within the sector, with 360 Finance notably positioned to outperform its competitors in the upcoming earnings announcement.
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