On Thursday, Citi downgraded shares of SK Innovation Co Ltd (096770:KS), moving its stance from Neutral to Sell and adjusting the price target to KRW100,000 from the previous KRW120,000. This decision follows the announcement of a proposed merger with the unlisted entity SK E&S, which was made public on Wednesday, July 17, 2024.
The revised target reflects anticipated earnings per share (EPS) dilution for fiscal years 2025-26 by approximately 10% and 20%, respectively.
The merger ratio is based on what is deemed the "fair" value of SK Innovation shares at KRW112,400, which equates to a price-to-book value (P/BV) ratio of 0.47, compared to SK E&S's P/BV of 0.91. Post-merger, SK Innovation's minority shareholders would possess a 40.4% stake in the combined entity, a decrease from their current 63.8% holding.
Citi's analysis suggests that while SK E&S's stable cash flow might alleviate funding concerns, there are increasing doubts regarding the battery business's ability to reach EBIT (earnings before interest and taxes) breakeven, considering the high fixed costs and low utilization rates. This skepticism mirrors concerns previously raised by Citi in regards to LG Energy Solution.
Additionally, the firm highlighted another merger plan involving SK On, which would include oil and chemical trading (SKTI) and tank farm operations (SK Entum). Citi expressed concern over the potential for a de-rating risk, as SK On may no longer be viewed as a "pure" battery play due to these integrations.
InvestingPro Insights
Following the recent developments surrounding SK Innovation Co Ltd (096770:KS), analysts have been closely monitoring the company's financial health and market performance. An InvestingPro Tip highlights that SK Innovation operates with a significant debt burden, which could be a contributing factor to the cautious outlook expressed by Citi. With the merger on the horizon, understanding the company's financial stability becomes even more crucial for investors.
Another notable InvestingPro Tip points out that SK Innovation has been quickly burning through cash. This aligns with Citi's concerns regarding the battery business's ability to reach EBIT breakeven amidst high fixed costs and low utilization rates. The cash burn rate could potentially affect the combined entity's financial performance post-merger, making it a critical metric for shareholders to watch.
InvestingPro Data metrics provide additional insights into the company's current standing. SK Innovation has experienced a significant return over the last week, indicating a positive market reaction in the short term. However, the company is trading at a high earnings multiple, which may raise questions about its valuation in the context of the merger. Furthermore, the data shows that SK Innovation does not pay a dividend to shareholders, which could influence the investment decisions of those seeking regular income from their holdings.
For investors looking for a deeper analysis, there are additional InvestingPro Tips available that could shed light on the company's position within the Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels industry, stock price volatility, and profitability projections. To explore these insights and more, visit https://www.investing.com/pro/096770 and remember to use the coupon code PRONEWS24 to get up to 10% off a yearly Pro and a yearly or biyearly Pro+ subscription.
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