On Friday, Evercore ISI maintained a positive outlook on Casey's General Stores (NASDAQ:CASY) stock with an Outperform rating and a steady price target of $435.00. The firm highlighted Casey’s resilience in a challenging economic environment, noting the company's ability to achieve sales growth and EBITDA expansion against industry trends.
Casey's reported a robust first quarter from May to July, showcasing a 6% increase in sales and a 2.3% rise in comparable store sales, outperforming the industry which saw a 2% contraction in sales. The company also enjoyed a 9% year-over-year growth in EBITDA.
Adding to the optimistic forecast, the recent acquisition of CEFCO is expected to contribute an additional $90 million in EBITDA, plus synergies, over the next three to four months. This strategic move is set to support continued EBITDA growth into 2025.
The analysis by Evercore ISI points out Casey's ability to capture market share and expand its EBIT margin amid a period when dollar stores and convenience store industries face headwinds. According to the firm, Casey's pricing power and the expansion of its private label offerings are crucial strategies that allow the company to navigate through the current consumer spending slowdown while still achieving profit growth.
Evercore ISI projects a stable future for Casey's, with a Base Case price target based on 26.5 times the Fiscal Year 2026 estimated earnings per share (EPS) of $16.25. The firm suggests that Casey's is a top pick for growth-oriented investors within the Food Retail sector. In comparison, Kroger (NYSE:NYSE:KR) is recommended for its potential upside related to the anticipated resolution of the Albertsons Companies Inc. (NYSE:ACI) deal in the near future.
In other recent news, Casey's General Stores has experienced several significant developments. Deutsche Bank (ETR:DBKGn) has increased the stock's price target to $451, maintaining a Buy rating. This adjustment reflects confidence in the company's growth prospects and strategic initiatives, including plans for mid-single-digit unit growth through organic expansion and mergers. Casey's has also seen a 7% year-over-year increase in first-quarter earnings per share for fiscal year 2025, surpassing estimates from RBC Capital Markets, Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS), and FactSet.
Furthermore, Casey's has announced plans to acquire Fikes Wholesale, owner of CEFCO Convenience Stores, for $1.145 billion, which will add 198 retail stores and a dealer network to their operations. This acquisition is expected to close in the fourth quarter of 2024 and will expand Casey's presence into Texas and other southern states.
Moreover, Casey's has set an ambitious target to open 500 new stores by the end of fiscal year 2026. Analysts from firms such as RBC Capital Markets and Evercore ISI have raised their stock price targets for Casey's, anticipating continued financial growth in the upcoming years.
Despite these positive developments, Goldman Sachs maintains a Neutral rating on shares of Casey's, suggesting a cautious approach until more clarity is provided on the impact of the pending Fikes transaction.
InvestingPro Insights
Complementing Evercore ISI's positive outlook on Casey's General Stores (NASDAQ:CASY), InvestingPro data reveals some noteworthy financial metrics and trends. Casey's has demonstrated a commitment to shareholder value, having raised its dividend for an impressive 25 consecutive years. Additionally, the company's stock has shown a high return over the last year, underscoring the resilience noted by analysts in the face of economic challenges.
InvestingPro Tips highlight that 4 analysts have revised their earnings upwards for the upcoming period, indicating a potential continuation of Casey's growth trajectory. It's also worth noting that while Casey's operates with a moderate level of debt, analysts predict the company will remain profitable this year, which is consistent with its performance over the last twelve months.
For investors seeking more in-depth analysis, InvestingPro offers additional tips on Casey's General Stores, which can be found at https://www.investing.com/pro/CASY. These insights could further inform investment decisions, especially considering the company's strategic moves like the recent acquisition of CEFCO and its impact on future EBITDA growth.
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