On Friday, BTIG revised its price target for New Fortress Energy (NASDAQ:NFE), a global energy infrastructure company, reducing it significantly to $15.00 from the previous $35.00. Despite the decrease, the firm maintains a Buy rating on the stock. The adjustment reflects a 35% decline in the company's stock value since it reported its earnings in early August. During that earnings report, New Fortress Energy had focused on its EBITDA growth trajectory for 2025, aiming for $1.3 billion, and the refinancing of its $875 million notes due in September 2025.
The analyst pointed out that New Fortress Energy has integrated long-term growth prospects into its strategy, with projects in Brazil expected to ramp up in 2025 and contribute to growth in the following two years.
Additionally, the company's project in Nicaragua is targeted to start in the fourth quarter of 2024, and its Fast LNG initiative is anticipated to bolster EBITDA in the next year. However, the recent performance of the company's bonds in the market has become a focal point, with yields on the 2029 bonds increasing to approximately 15% from around 11% in early August, and yields on the 2025 notes rising to about 12% from 9%.
Despite securing a backstop for the 2025 bonds and receiving a covenant waiver on its total debt to capital ratio through the first quarter of 2025, the analyst noted that the cost of refinancing has gone up. This comes as the company faces near-term debt maturities totaling $2.1 billion in 2025 and 2026. Moreover, a recent dip in diesel prices, which have fallen by approximately 12% since early August, is believed to have trimmed over $1 per million British thermal units from the company's profit margin in Puerto Rico.
The analyst concluded that while there is a clear path for New Fortress Energy to refinance its short-term debt obligations, which could act as a positive catalyst for the stock, any refinancing is expected to raise the interest expense by around $200 million.
InvestingPro Insights
As New Fortress Energy (NASDAQ:NFE) navigates through its financial challenges, real-time data from InvestingPro provides a clearer picture of the company's current standing. With a market capitalization of $2.24 billion and an attractive P/E ratio of 9.23, the company appears to be valued reasonably in the market. However, the adjusted P/E ratio for the last twelve months as of Q2 2024 is even lower at 7.0, suggesting that the stock might be undervalued if the company can maintain its earnings trajectory.
Despite a slight revenue decline of 1.16% over the last twelve months as of Q2 2024, New Fortress Energy boasts a robust gross profit margin of 57.56%, reflecting efficient operations. The company's operating income margin of 31.83% during the same period indicates a strong ability to convert revenue into profit. These figures are crucial for investors considering the company's future profitability, especially in light of the InvestingPro Tip that analysts predict the company will be profitable this year.
InvestingPro Tips also highlight that New Fortress Energy operates with a significant debt burden and is quickly burning through cash. These concerns are reflected in the stock's performance, with a 1-month price total return of -16.72% and a 3-month price total return of -49.56% as of the latest data. For investors seeking more comprehensive analysis, InvestingPro offers additional tips, including insights on the company's short-term obligations versus liquid assets and its expected net income drop this year.
For those interested in further investment analysis and tips on New Fortress Energy, more information is available on InvestingPro, including a total of 12 tips that can help investors make more informed decisions.
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