On Tuesday, BTIG updated its assessment of Castle Biosciences (NASDAQ:CSTL), increasing the stock's price target to $45.00 from $40.00, while reiterating a Buy rating. The firm's analyst highlighted Castle Biosciences' impressive performance, noting the company's second consecutive quarter of GAAP profitability. The analyst's remarks underscored the company's significant year-over-year revenue and volume growth of 39% and 41%, respectively, in the third quarter of 2024.
Castle Biosciences also updated its 2024 revenue guidance upwards by approximately $38 million. This revision includes the $6 million beat from the third quarter and anticipates continued payments for the company's Squamous Cell Carcinoma (SCC) test through the fourth quarter of 2024.
The analyst expressed optimism that Novitas, a Medicare Administrative Contractor, might extend payments for Castle Biosciences' SCC test beyond the fourth quarter, given the company's track record of approximately 2.5 years of Medicare reimbursement and its efforts in generating supporting evidence and data.
The market is awaiting news on the SCC test's coverage status with the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) through Novitas, or potentially Palmetto if a reconsideration request is made. While the exact timing of this update is uncertain, the analyst conveyed a positive outlook on the risk-reward balance for Castle Biosciences' stock. The current share price trades at just 2.6 times the firm's 2026 revenue estimate, which notably does not factor in SCC test revenue for 2025 and 2026.
In light of the company's robust third-quarter performance and the raised revenue forecast, BTIG has adjusted its valuation and increased the price target for Castle Biosciences. The new target reflects a continued endorsement of the company's financial trajectory and market position.
In other recent news, Castle Biosciences reported a 39% increase in third-quarter revenue to $85.8 million, primarily due to increased test volume and higher selling prices for its DecisionDx-SCC test. This robust performance led the company to revise its full-year revenue guidance to between $320 million and $330 million.
Analyst firms KeyBanc, Baird, and Canaccord Genuity have responded positively to these developments, with KeyBanc raising its price target for Castle Biosciences to $36, Baird to $39, and Canaccord Genuity maintaining a $42 target.
The growth in Castle Biosciences' revenue is largely attributed to the expansion of its diagnostic test offerings, notably IDgenetix and TissueCypher. The company is also optimistic about a favorable decision from Novitas on genetic testing, which could impact its SCC test. However, the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services has extended the coverage decision deadline to an unspecified date.
Despite uncertainties surrounding the reimbursement decision for DecisionDx-SCC, Castle Biosciences continues to pursue discussions to secure coverage, emphasizing the value of these tests in patient care. The company also plans to launch a new test by the end of 2025 and is focusing on strategic investments for long-term growth.
InvestingPro Insights
Castle Biosciences' recent performance aligns with several key metrics and insights from InvestingPro. The company's revenue growth of 62.43% over the last twelve months as of Q3 2024 supports BTIG's observation of significant year-over-year growth. Additionally, the quarterly revenue growth of 39.5% in Q3 2024 closely matches the 39% growth mentioned in the article.
InvestingPro Tips highlight that Castle Biosciences holds more cash than debt on its balance sheet and has liquid assets exceeding short-term obligations, indicating a strong financial position. This financial stability likely contributes to the company's ability to achieve GAAP profitability, as noted in the article.
The stock's strong performance is reflected in InvestingPro data, showing a 87.1% price total return over the past year and a 53.96% return over the last three months. These figures align with BTIG's positive outlook and increased price target.
It's worth noting that InvestingPro offers 11 additional tips for Castle Biosciences, providing investors with a more comprehensive analysis of the company's financial health and market position.
This article was generated with the support of AI and reviewed by an editor. For more information see our T&C.