On Monday, BofA Securities maintained its Neutral stance on Oscar Health Inc (NYSE:OSCR) stock, with a constant price target of $21.00. During its investor day, Oscar Health emphasized its strategy to achieve target margins and the essential assumptions necessary to realize these goals.
The company has set forth an ambitious plan, aiming for a 20% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) in revenue from 2024 to 2027, a 5% operating margin, and the generation of $2.25 in GAAP earnings per share (EPS).
BofA Securities has incorporated most of the fundamental margin assumptions, including both fixed and variable general and administrative expenses as well as medical loss ratio (MLR) targets, into its forecast.
However, the firm expresses a more conservative outlook regarding Oscar Health's market share gains, projecting a 10% revenue CAGR as opposed to the company's 20% target. Consequently, BofA Securities has adjusted its EPS estimates for 2027 from $1.00 to $1.30.
The valuation approach for Oscar Health has been modified by BofA Securities to reflect 23 times the estimated EPS for 2027, with a 30% discount applied, supporting the set price objective of $21.00. The reaffirmed Neutral rating suggests that, according to BofA Securities, the current valuation of Oscar Health already accounts for a relatively positive forecast yet acknowledges the uncertainty posed by the forthcoming subsidy cliff. This uncertainty tempers the firm's outlook on the stock.
In other recent news, Oscar Health Inc. (NYSE:OSCR) has experienced significant developments. The health insurance provider recently reported its first profitable quarter in Q1 2024, with total revenue reaching $2.1 billion, marking a 46% increase from the same period last year. The company also reported a net income of $178 million, a significant turnaround from previous figures.
On the analyst front, BofA Securities revised its stance on Oscar Health. The firm downgraded the stock from Buy to Neutral, citing concerns about the potential expiration of exchange subsidies, crucial to the company's earnings.
The firm also adjusted Oscar Health's price target to $21, down from $25. However, in a separate note, BofA Securities raised Oscar Health's share price target from $22 to $25, maintaining a Buy rating, based on increased confidence in the company's market stability.
In addition to financial results and analyst actions, Oscar Health saw a surge in total membership, indicating solid growth in both existing and new markets. These recent developments reflect a dynamic landscape for Oscar Health, with notable financial results, analyst revisions, and membership growth.
InvestingPro Insights
As Oscar Health Inc (NYSE:OSCR) navigates through ambitious growth plans and financial targets, real-time data from InvestingPro offers a snapshot of the company's current market position. With a market capitalization of $4.58 billion, Oscar Health is trading at a high Price / Book multiple of 4.44, indicating investor confidence in the value of its assets relative to its share price. Despite a negative P/E ratio, which reflects the company's challenges in achieving profitability over the last twelve months, analysts are optimistic about the future, projecting net income growth this year.
InvestingPro Tips suggest that while Oscar Health has a history of weak gross profit margins, currently standing at 21.87%, there is an expectation of the company becoming profitable within the year. Additionally, the stock has experienced significant price volatility, yet it has shown a strong return over the last three and six months, with a 32.06% and 139.7% total price return respectively. These metrics could be particularly interesting for investors looking for growth opportunities in the healthcare sector, despite the absence of dividends.
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