On Friday, Barclays (LON:BARC) adjusted its stance on Swedbank (SWEDA:SS) (OTC: SWDBY (OTC:SWDBY)), downgrading the stock from Overweight to Equalweight and slightly reducing the price target to SEK233.00 from SEK237.00. The reevaluation by the firm reflects a shift in preference towards other stocks within the sector.
Barclays has held an Overweight rating on Swedbank since the initiation of coverage on Nordic banks back in September 2020. The bank's potential settlement with the Department of Justice regarding the Estonia case is seen as a potential positive development for the stock.
Barclays anticipates that such a resolution could alleviate existing concerns and enhance capital returns, projecting a significant increase in capital return yield from the current 19% to an estimated 34% between the fiscal years 2024 and 2026.
Despite these prospects, Barclays notes that Swedbank's estimated capital return yield does not rank highest among the European banks covered by the firm. Additionally, there are perceived risks to Swedbank's net interest income (NII) for the fiscal year 2025, particularly due to its exposure in the Baltic region.
These concerns are compounded by the possibility of an extended bank tax in Lithuania, as was discussed during a recent visit to Swedbank's operations in the country on May 22, 2024.
Barclays also revised its earnings per share (EPS) estimate for fiscal year 2026 downward by 1%, citing higher expected expenses that are somewhat balanced by increased revenue projections.
This adjustment comes even as the firm's pre-provision profit estimate for fiscal year 2025 aligns closely with the Infront consensus expectations. The review by Barclays suggests a cautious approach to Swedbank's stock amidst a changing landscape in the European banking sector.
InvestingPro Insights
Following Barclays' recent adjustment of Swedbank's stock rating, it's worth considering additional insights from InvestingPro. Swedbank (OTC: SWDBY) has caught the attention of analysts, with three of them revising their earnings upwards for the upcoming period, indicating potential strength in the company's performance. This optimism is supported by the fact that Swedbank is trading at a low P/E ratio of 6.85, which is attractive relative to its near-term earnings growth.
Moreover, Swedbank's commitment to shareholder returns is evident, not only through a significant dividend yield of 5.84% as of the last dividend ex-date on March 27, 2024, but also through the company's high shareholder yield. The dividend growth over the last twelve months stands at a robust 55.6%, showcasing Swedbank's ability to increase shareholder value.
For investors seeking more comprehensive analysis, there are additional InvestingPro Tips available that delve deeper into Swedbank's financial health and market position. By using the coupon code PRONEWS24, readers can get an extra 10% off a yearly or biyearly Pro and Pro+ subscription to access these valuable insights. With these tips, investors can make more informed decisions, especially in the context of a competitive European banking sector.
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