On Tuesday, Ally Financial (NYSE:ALLY) maintained its Hold rating and a $45.00 stock price target from Jefferies, following updates at a recent industry conference.
Management at Ally Financial has adjusted its third-quarter financial guidance, now expecting a contraction in its net interest margin (NIM) as opposed to an expansion previously forecasted for the third quarter of 2024. The change in outlook is attributed to anticipated federal interest rate cuts.
Ally Financial's management noted intensified credit challenges in the retail auto sector, influenced by high inflation and a weakening job market that is affecting consumers. These factors are expected to impact the company's earnings per share (EPS), with an estimated 7% decline for every 10 basis point increase in auto net charge-offs (NCO) or a 5 basis point decrease in NIM.
The company anticipates a decline in NIM from the second quarter 2024 level of 3.3%, based on the expectation of federal cuts.
The firm's NIM estimate stands at 3.31%, slightly below the consensus estimate of 3.33% for the third quarter of 2024. Ally Financial has also reported trends in auto loans and deposits repricing, with yields around 10.5% and the cost of funds expected to decrease due to the implementation of cautious underwriting standards on new loans.
However, with 100 basis point rate cuts expected for the remainder of the year, there is potential pricing pressure on Ally's liquid deposit book, which has a 70% beta, while $60 billion of floating rate exposure on the asset side is expected to reprice with 100% beta.
Additional factors contributing to a lower NIM for the third quarter include changes in termination volume expectations, lease gains affecting NIM by 6 to 7 basis points, and a $600 million lower other comprehensive income (OCI) after tax.
On the credit side, an uptick in unemployment of 50 basis points this year has impacted the nonaccrual side of loans, directly lowering NIM and also resulting from the write-off of three months of interest revenue. Overall, net charge-offs are trending 10 basis points above expectations.
In other recent news, Ally Financial has reported a series of noteworthy developments. The firm's Q2 2024 earnings revealed a revenue increase of 15% and an adjusted EPS of $0.97, as highlighted in their recent earnings call. The company's focus on auto finance, consumer bank businesses, and digital banking contributed significantly to these results.
RBC Capital reinstated coverage on Ally Financial with an Outperform rating, despite the company facing credit challenges impacting near-term performance. The firm's analysis suggests that these issues, including higher delinquencies and net charge-offs, are manageable.
Ally Financial also revised its margin outlook, expecting a sequential decline for the third quarter, although the fundamental drivers for margin expansion remain intact.
Ally Financial announced the appointment of Hope Mehlman as the company's chief legal and corporate affairs officer. In her new role, Mehlman will head the Legal & Corporate Affairs Office, overseeing regulatory and legal matters. Mehlman's extensive leadership experience in the banking sector is expected to significantly contribute to the company's future success.
The company also disclosed the resignation of director Melissa Goldman due to personal and professional considerations. This change in board composition did not result from any disputes or disagreements with the company's operations, policies, or practices. These recent developments illustrate Ally Financial's continued adaptation to the evolving financial landscape.
InvestingPro Insights
As Ally Financial (NYSE:ALLY) navigates through a challenging economic landscape marked by interest rate fluctuations and credit concerns, real-time data from InvestingPro provides additional context for investors. According to recent metrics, Ally Financial has a market capitalization of approximately $9.93 billion and a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 14.13, which slightly increased to 14.74 over the last twelve months as of Q2 2024.
Despite a revenue decline of 9.63% during the same period, the company has managed to maintain a respectable operating income margin of 12.82%. These figures underscore the company's resilience in the face of macroeconomic headwinds.
InvestingPro Tips indicate that analysts have revised their earnings upwards for the upcoming period, signaling confidence in Ally's performance. Moreover, the company has demonstrated commitment to shareholder returns by maintaining dividend payments for nine consecutive years, with a current dividend yield of 3.03%.
This consistent track record of profitability over the last twelve months and the anticipation of continued profitability this year provide a reassuring sign for investors considering the stock's future prospects. For a more comprehensive analysis, investors can find over 10 additional InvestingPro Tips on InvestingPro.
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