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Gold at 3-Month Low as China-U.S. Trade Hits Safe Havens

Published 07/11/2019, 18:50
Updated 07/11/2019, 19:35
© Reuters.
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Investing.com – Both the Chinese government and White House are flooding the airwaves with the baby steps they are taking in resolving their trade war. Safe havens, including gold, are bearing the brunt of the apparent progress.

Gold hit three-month lows on Thursday and was headed for its biggest losing week since 2017 after China said it was rolling back tariffs with the U.S. to try and get the first phase of their trade deal done. Just a day earlier the yellow metal rebounded to within striking distance of the bullish $1,500 level after media reports suggested that even a partial U.S.-China trade deal might not be done until December.

Gold futures for December delivery on New York’s COMEX settled down $26.70, or 1.8%, at $1,466.40. Earlier in the session, the contract fell to $1,461.55, its lowest since the August 7 bottom of $1,484.30.

Week-to-date, December gold was down almost 3%, its biggest weekly drop since April 2017. Just on Wednesday, it had closed at $1,493.10, putting it within striking distance of $1,500.

Spot gold, which tracks live trades in bullion, was down $23.56, or 1.6%, at $1,466.80 per ounce by 1:42 PM ET (18:42 GMT) on Thursday. Its session low was $1,460.66, a bottom since August 6.

Gold tumbled after Chinese commerce minister Gao Feng said Beijing and Washington have agreed to phase out their more than year long tit-for-tat tariffs. Canceling tariffs is vital to the first phase of their trade agreement, which both sides have agreed to do as negotiations progress, he said.

Gao’s comments came ahead of any tweet on the matter from President Donald Trump and he also did not respond to the remarks from Beijing, which was unusual for the U.S. president. Media reports on Wednesday said the Trump administration was having difficulty figuring out how to hold Beijing accountable for its commitments should the president and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping sign a deal in the coming weeks.

But markets rallied anyway on Gao’s remarks, with all three major indexes on Wall Street hitting record highs.

The yield on the U.S. 10-Year Treasury note hit its highest level since July on Thursday and could top 2% if the current stock-market rally continues. The yield curve, which inverted over the summer raising recession fears, steepened to the widest since January.

“Gold is pulling back some today with China’s trade optimism remarks as higher bond yields, stocks and no inflation volatility are all hitting safe-havens,” said George Gero, precious metals analyst at RBC Wealth Management in New York.

Gold has weathered headwinds since the Federal Reserve’s last monetary easing on Oct. 30, when the U.S. central bank indicated it might not do more after cutting rates by a quarter-point for a third month in a row.

“We have cautioned that ebbing price momentum in the midst of the Fed's Pause version 2.0 has forced CTAs to start a round of liquidations, which still appears to be weighing on the yellow metal,” TD Securities said in its daily note on gold.

“After all, loss-avoidance is a tough sell, when equities' are breaking out. In the midst of CTA selling, the more upbeat news on the trade file could help other gold bugs to liquidate their holdings,” it said.

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