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Gold / Silver / Copper futures - weekly outlook: March 28 - April 1

Published 27/03/2016, 11:18
Gold futures log worst weekly loss of 2016 amid hawkish Fed signals
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Investing.com - Gold prices fell to a four-week low on Thursday, as hawkish comments from a handful of Federal Reserve officials sparked speculation that the U.S. central bank could give serious consideration to a rate hike at its April meeting, boosting the U.S. dollar.

Gold for April delivery on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange fell to an intraday low of $1,211.20 a troy ounce, the weakest level since February 26, before paring losses to end at $1,221.60, down $2.40, or 0.2%.

Metals trading on the Comex remained closed Friday in observance of the Good Friday holiday. For the week, gold prices declined $32.40, or 2.58%, the third straight weekly loss and the biggest since November.

St. Louis Fed President James Bullard added his support to the possibility of more U.S. interest rate hikes this year on Thursday, with the first perhaps as soon as April.

The hawkish comments follow similar remarks made by Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker, Chicago Fed President Charles Evans, San Francisco Fed President John Williams and Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart earlier in the week.

The prospect of more U.S. interest rate rises this year bolstered the dollar against its major rivals. The dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, rose to a one-week high of 96.39 on Thursday.

It ended the holiday-shortened week with a gain of 1.1%, its first such gain this month. A stronger dollar makes U.S. commodities more expensive for buyers holding other currencies.

Despite recent losses, prices of the yellow metal are up nearly 14% so far this year as investors seek safe havens in the face of mounting instability in other financial markets and as fears over a China-led global economic slowdown make it tougher for the Fed to raise rates.

The U.S. central bank surprised markets earlier this month by cutting its rate hike projections more than expected, down from four to two in 2016, citing the potential impact from weaker global growth and financial market turmoil on the U.S. economy.

Also on the Comex, silver futures for May delivery shed 7.3 cents, or 0.48%, on Thursday to close at $15.19 a troy ounce after hitting a session low of $15.10, a level not seen since March 3. On the week, silver futures lost 61.2 cents, or 3.87%.

Elsewhere in metals trading, copper for May delivery dipped 0.6 cents, or 0.29%, on Thursday to end at $2.229 a pound. For the week, Comex copper prices slumped 5.6 cents, or 2.46%.

In the week ahead, market players will be turning their attention to a highly anticipated speech by Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen on Tuesday for further clues on the timing of the next U.S. rate hike.

Besides Yellen, there are other Fed speakers in the coming week, including New York Fed President William Dudley on Thursday and Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester on Friday.

March nonfarm payrolls data and the March ISM manufacturing report, both due Friday, will also be in focus, as investors attempt to gauge if the world's largest economy is strong enough to withstand further rate hikes in 2016.

Traders will also be looking out for data on China's manufacturing sector due on Friday, amid ongoing concerns over the health of the world's second biggest economy.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, March 28

The U.S. is release data on personal spending, pending homes sales and the goods trade balance.

Tuesday, March 29

The U.S. is to release data on consumer confidence, while Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen is due to speak about the U.S. economic outlook and monetary policy at the Economic Club of New York.

Wednesday, March 30

In the euro zone, Germany is to release preliminary data on inflation.

The U.S. is to publish the ADP report on private sector jobs creation.

Thursday, March 31

The euro zone is to publish preliminary data on consumer price inflation and Germany is to report on retail sales and the jobless rate.

The U.S. is to release a report on initial jobless claims, as well as data on business activity in the Chicago region. Later in the day, NY Fed President William Dudley is scheduled to speak at a public event.

Friday, April 1

China is to publish its official manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMIs and the Caixin manufacturing index.

The U.S. is to round up the week with the closely watched report on nonfarm payrolls, while the Institute of Supply Management is to release data on manufacturing activity.

Later Friday, Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester is due to speak about the economic outlook and monetary policy at the New York Association for Business Economics.

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