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Crude Oil Futures - Weekly Outlook: December 26 - 30

Published 25/12/2016, 09:53
© Reuters.  Oil futures stay within sight of 17 month highs
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Investing.com - Oil futures finished slightly higher in a holiday-shortened session on Friday, remaining within sight of a one-and-a-half-year peak as market participants awaited further clarity on whether major crude producers will stick to their promise to pull back on output in the new year.

On the ICE Futures Exchange in London, Brent oil for February delivery ticked up 11 cents, or 0.2%, to settle at $55.16 a barrel by close of trade Friday, not far from a 17-month high of $57.89 touched on December 12.

London-traded Brent futures logged a loss of 5 cents, or 0.1%, on the week, in thinning trading ahead of the year-end holiday period.

Elsewhere, on the New York Mercantile Exchange, crude oil for delivery in February tacked on 7 cents, or 0.13%, to end the week at $52.95 a barrel, within sight of a one-and-a-half-year peak of $54.51 logged on December 12.

For the week, New York-traded oil futures added 7 cents, or about 0.1%.

Oil traders were hesitant to make significant moves ahead of the year-end as they waited to see how OPEC would manage its planned output cuts.

OPEC members agreed to lower production by a combined 1.2 million barrels per day starting from January 1, their first such deal since 2008.

The pact was followed by an agreement from 11 non-OPEC producers, led by Russia, to reduce their supplies by 558,000 barrels a day.

However, some traders remain skeptical that the planned cuts will be as substantial as the market currently expects.

There are also some worries in the market about production increases in the U.S. and Libya.

Oilfield services provider Baker Hughes said late Friday that the number of rigs drilling for oil in the U.S. last week increased by 13 to 523, the eighth straight weekly rise and a level not seen in almost a year.

Some analysts have warned that the recent rally in prices could be self-defeating, as it encourages U.S. shale producers to drill more, adding to concerns over a global supply glut.

Meanwhile, Libya, which is allowed to ramp up production as part of the OPEC deal, announced the reopening of pipelines leading from two major fields. Libyan officials said the restarting of the oilfields and a connected pipeline could bring back around 270,000 barrels a day over the next three months.

Elsewhere on Nymex, gasoline futures for January added 2.2 cents, or 1.4% to $1.626 a gallon, putting in a weekly gain of 4.4%, while January heating oil gained 0.2 cent, or 0.1%, to finish at $1.662 a gallon, marking a weekly decline of 0.6%.

Natural gas futures for January delivery settled 12.4 cents, or 3.5%, higher at $3.662 per million British thermal units, and registered a 7.2% weekly rise, as a cold snap in the U.S. boosted demand.

In the week ahead, trading volumes are expected to remain light due to the Christmas holiday and as many traders already closed books before the end of the year, reducing liquidity in the market and increasing the volatility.

Meanwhile, market participants will eye fresh weekly information on U.S. stockpiles of crude and refined products on Wednesday and Thursday to gauge the strength of demand in the world’s largest oil consumer. This week's reports come out one day later than usual.

Oil traders will also continue to pay close attention to comments from global oil producers for further evidence that producers will stick to their agreement to cut production next year.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, December 26

Oil markets will remain closed for the Christmas holiday.

Wednesday, December 28

The American Petroleum Institute, an industry group, is to publish its weekly report on U.S. oil supplies.

Thursday, December 29

The U.S. Energy Information Administration is to release weekly data on oil and gasoline stockpiles.

Friday, December 30

Baker Hughes will release weekly data on the U.S. oil rig count.

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