On Friday, BMO Capital Markets maintained a Market Perform rating on shares of Empire Company (EMP/A:CN) (OTC: EMLAF) but increased its price target to Cdn$48.00, up from the previous Cdn$44.00. The adjustment reflects the company's accelerated store growth strategy, as noted by the firm.
Empire Company, during its recent earnings call, indicated plans to double the number of new store openings in the coming year. This expansion includes the addition of more FreshCo sites in Western Canada, aiming to surpass the current count of 48 towards a goal of at least 65. The company is also looking to open new locations under various other banners.
The firm's analysis suggests a continued expectation for non-same store sales (non-SSS) growth of 0.5-0.7% for fiscal years 2026 and 2027. This is in contrast to the slight negative growth reported in recent quarters. The anticipated growth is believed to be driven mainly by net new stores rather than conversions.
Empire Company's relative valuation discount to peers has decreased significantly, narrowing from a 7-8x gap in the summer to a 5-6x gap at present. The firm attributes this change largely to improvements in same store sales (SSS).
Despite the positive trend, the firm remains cautiously optimistic, only slightly increasing their second half of fiscal year 2025 same store sales estimates and maintaining a conservative stance for fiscal year 2026.
The stock price target of Cdn$48 is based on 15 times the firm's estimated earnings per share (EPS) for fiscal year 2026 and 14 times for fiscal year 2027. This valuation represents a 4.5-5x discount compared to competitors such as Loblaw and Metro, which are currently trading at higher multiples in the market.
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