I have tidied up my Daily Chart for Real because it was just getting tooooo messy! It has allowed me to look at the rise the following Monday after my report and how it started the move higher through even the 3.0771 Aug 2004 high and only a minor high at 3.3420 finally seemed to stop the current rise! The bullet point above was correct at the time of last writing but I was just very cautious and did not anticipate such a quick move, even if it was in the right direction!
The 3.3167 on the 20th of Mar marked the high-water mark for this pair as we have not only a Bearish Harami but also an Outside Day Down move – both on the Daily Chart plus an Indecisive Spinning Top on the Weekly Chart though there was also a Bullish Opening White Marubozo on the Monthly Chart. We have since tested back towards the Aug 2004 high at 3.0771, bounced back up and currently are trying back down as well as testing the 2015 Uptrend (currently 3.1369).
In the short term there is an opportunity for the market to handle itself sideways and possibly lower to retest the 3.0771 level – the failure to retest the 3.3167 on the upside early last week is a symptom of that view. However, if we do try lower I imagine it must be soon – within the next few days, otherwise the Uptrend will likely reassert itself, even perhaps at a shallower angle.
We have gone through a short period of indecision and perhaps it is time to find out which way the market wishes to go. I am very, very tempted to put this pair into neutral on the bullet point above but adhering to the rules means I will let it pass just one more month (I think).
Support 3.0915, 3.0771, 3.0366 (dynamic), 3.0235, 3.0041, 2.9496 & if you wish to get bearish then consecutive closes below 2.9330! Resistance 3.1369 (dynamic), 3.0366 (dynamic) 3.2327, 3.2875 & 3.3167!
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