The week ahead brings a busy economic calendar with inflation data due from the US and China plus GDP and labour market updates from the UK. Trade data from China and the UK, plus US retail sales, are also issued. Monetary policy meetings in South Korea and Singapore are in the calendar, though for central bank watchers the focus will be on the FOMC minutes.
September's Fed FOMC meeting alluded to the Fed's intention to taper 'soon'. While largely expected, the meeting leaned on the hawkish end and further details from the meeting minutes will be scrutinised to assess lift-off criteria. At the same time, US inflation figures will also be eyed warily amid ongoing market jitters with regard to elevated prices. Global manufacturing prices notably accelerated in September amid supply shortages and steeper shipping costs, with the US being one of the developed economies that continued to experience severely elevated price pressures.
China's factory gate inflation is likewise expected to stay aloft as inflationary pressures picked up in September amid material shortages, according to the Caixin China General Manufacturing PMI. Retail sales will also be in focus after COVID-19 outbreaks receded.
In the UK, supply issues continued to snowball in the post-Brexit reality and official GDP data for August will provide an update to the extent to which growth has been hampered. As far as the IHS Markit/CIPS UK indicated, output growth had slowed sharply in the month, hit by the constraints. The UK's labour market data will also be eyed for signs of rising wage pressures.
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