David Buik, Senior Market Commentator from Panmure Gordon, joined Nick Batsford and James Hughes on the Tip TV Finance to discuss the week ahead for the UK and the US, as well as the UK banks and an overall picture for central banks.
What next for central banks?
Buik began by noting that there are more stimulus packages on the way in China, plus Draghi is also hinting at more stimulus from the ECB. Meanwhile, the Bank of England will not be hiking rates in the UK, according to Buik, but Carney is even further away from introducing QE to the UK he urged.
UK Bank exposure from higher interest rates and lower GDP
Buik outlined Lloyds (L:LLOY) who are reporting tomorrow and expect a 4% increase in their profits, and he noted they are on the road to recovery with the government continually lowering their stake in the bank to around 10%. In terms of Barclays (L:BARC), Buik continued that they have realised how vital investment banking is to their company. He also noted commented on RBS (L:RBS), who are expecting a £998 million profit, but he added they are not ready for purpose yet and the company still faces difficult times ahead. He concluded that with 60% of lending in the UK mortgage based, higher interest rates from the BoE along with weaker UK GDP would lead to the banks being highly exposed.
UK and UK reporting season
Buik finished by noting the success of Google (O:GOOGL), Apple (O:AAPL) and Microsoft (O:MSFT) in the US who say their shares rise between 7-9% as a result of their reports, but he noted the be careful as the week ahead is important. He continued on the more pessimistic theme to comment on the profit warnings for BASF and Travis Perkins (L:TPK), as well as the UK GDP number of 0.5% which was below the expected 0.6% and lower than the 0.7% from last quarter. Buik concluded that we may have another 5-10% correction by the end of the year with the indices looking fully valued.