Last month I wrote about 11.8580, the 2008 high and how it was a crucial level on any move higher for USD/ZAR. Well lo & behold we tested it again, initially very tentatively but then punched through to the upside on NFP Friday the 6th of Mar and had the consecutive close the following Monday. We really only started to slow as we neared the 2002 high at 12.5996. Prices then tipped over just before mid-month, bounced (Dead Cat?) up off the now wide band of support 11.8035/11.7387 down to 11.3629 & have most recently fallen again to test the support.
This has allowed me to draw my first bearish Andrews & Schiff Pitchforks on recent action for quite a while (crossover dates of interest nearby 10th Apr & 14th of Apr) and has also on longer term charts provided the following, on the Weekly Chart. We had on consecutive weeks until recently a Bearish Engulfing Pattern followed by an indecisive Doji Cross followed by almost a Key Reversal Down!
On the Monthly Chart we have a clear Bearish Shooting Star Pattern! All-in-all, it does look as if we may have had enough of any rise in this pair and we are possibly looking to test support – though that support may be quite good & wide! Support is currently at 11.7489, 11.7387, 11.6730, 11.6242 (key combination including the Medium MA), 11.5303 (dynamic), 11.4721 & finally a band 11.3629 – 11.3581 ahead of the Long MA (currently 11.2511). Resistance 11.8035, 11.8245 (dynamic) 11.8580 – 11.8886, 11.9411 – 11.9453, 12.0386 – 12.0452, 12.0787 & 12.1178 – 12.1367 (this last one is a key 50% Fib on the recent action).
With this in mind I have changed the bullet point above into a more neutral stance!
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