TSLA enters wedge- will it go back down to $210?

TSLA's 1-hour timeframe has produced a classic wedge/triangle pattern.

Given that this stock is heavily over-valued for products it actually produces for sale to real customers, it could be in for a price correction to the downside. 

Likely outcome if it does is $210, but could it head back below $200?

It is a wedge pattern and price could equally head higher towards $290, but I'd be surprised, as the company simply doesn't possess the value any more. 

TSLA has a habit of over-promising and under-delivering, even so much so that the DOJ and SEC are looking into fraud allegations along these very lines.

Will the market, which is always right, determine the true value of this stock?





Tesla (TSLA), once the undisputed leader in the electric vehicle (EV) market, has experienced a decline in its market share and a perceived erosion of its technological edge.

This shift can be attributed to several factors:

Increasing Competition
The EV market has seen a surge in new entrants, from traditional automakers to start-ups, each bringing their unique strengths and innovations. Companies such as Volkswagen (ETR:VOWG_p), General Motors (NYSE:GM), and Ford have ramped up their EV offerings. For example, Volkswagen's ID.4 and Ford's Mustang Mach-E have been well-received, providing consumers with more choices and directly challenging Tesla's dominance.

Technological Advancements by Competitors
Tesla's technological edge, particularly in battery technology and autonomous driving, has been a significant competitive advantage. However, other companies are closing this gap. Advances in battery technology by firms like LG Chem and CATL, as well as improvements in autonomous driving by companies such as Waymo and NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA), have put pressure on Tesla to maintain its lead. For instance, General Motors' Ultium battery technology promises similar or superior performance metrics compared to Tesla's batteries.

Production and Quality Issues
Tesla has faced challenges related to production quality and consistency. Reports of manufacturing defects and recalls have affected its reputation. As competitors improve their quality control, consumers have become more critical of Tesla's production standards. For example, issues with the Model S and Model X have led to several high-profile recalls, denting consumer confidence.

Pricing and Market Positioning
Tesla's premium pricing strategy has made its vehicles less accessible to a broader audience. In contrast, competitors have introduced more affordable models without significantly compromising on performance or features. The Nissan Leaf and Chevrolet Bolt are examples of budget-friendly alternatives that have gained traction among cost-conscious consumers.

Regulatory and Market Dynamics
Regulatory changes and market dynamics have also played a role. Incentives for EV purchases in various markets have benefited newer entrants, and evolving emissions standards have forced all automakers to accelerate their EV plans. Additionally, geopolitical factors and supply chain disruptions have impacted Tesla's ability to scale production and meet global demand.

Internal Strategy and Focus
Tesla's focus on diversification into areas such as energy storage and solar energy has diverted some resources and attention from its core EV business. While these ventures align with Tesla's broader mission, they have also stretched the company's capacity to innovate and lead in the EV space.

Consumer Perceptions and Brand Loyalty
Consumer perceptions and brand loyalty are crucial in the automotive industry. While Tesla has a strong brand, the novelty and appeal of other brands entering the EV market have attracted new buyers. Brands like Audi and BMW, with established reputations for luxury and performance, have successfully launched EV models that resonate with their loyal customer bases.


To sum up, while Tesla remains a significant player in the EV market, its loss of market share and technological edge can be attributed to the intensifying competition, advancements by other companies, production and quality issues, market positioning, regulatory changes, and internal strategic shifts. The landscape of the EV market is rapidly evolving, and Tesla must continuously innovate and adapt to maintain its leadership position.