Stocks Rally Into Quarter End As Dollar Ramp Pauses

It’s month and quarter end. Scores on the doors are FTSE 100 up 1.6% for the quarter, 0.5% for September, which is not bad going considering the kind of volatility we have seen. Less positive for the US indices with the S&P 500 down 3.6% in September, just holding onto its quarterly gain of 1.4%. The Nasdaq 100 is down 5% this month. The DAX is down for both the month and the quarter. Hang Seng –15% almost for the quarter after all the tumult for tech stocks and Evergrande. 

Three-quarters of the way into 2021 and the S&P 500 is up 16%, the FTSE 100 up 10% and the DAX up 12%. The FTSE All World – a measure of global stocks – is lower for September, flat for the quarter, but still up 26% over the last 12 months. Flattish performance this quarter reflects stagnating growth rates globally and a rocky month we have just seen. September lived up to its promise for volatility, October is set to bring more with inflation, central bank tightening and slowing growth combining to create a less positive backdrop for equity markets. Investors should also be keeping a close eye on Washington – whilst a default is unthinkable – the merry dance keeps bond markets guessing.

This morning European stock markets opened firmly in the green after a broadly positive session in Asia, though shares in Tokyo and Hong Kong fell. The selloff on Wall Street on Tuesday failed to gather steam, with the broad market managing a mild gain yesterday, though the Nasdaq notched a mild decline as the pressure from higher bond yields and inflation concerns persisted.  

Boohoo (LON:BOOH) shares tumbled 10% as the company warned that rising costs were hitting margins. Management warned on supply chain and wage costs, whilst a higher number of customer returns and ongoing business investment were also a factor in the lower margin guidance. Boohoo might be at the sharp end of rising input inflation but it’s a marker for the rest of the market. We might expect to see other companies performing a similar degree of expectation management, albeit there is always the chance some will be sandbagging.  

The FTSE 100 broke clear of the recent range to notch its best since Sep 7^th, clearing a high above 7,150 and taking back into the area traded in the second half of August.  Weakness in sterling might be a factor in its favour.  

Dollar on the rampage

Sterling continues its run lower despite UK growth being revised higher than earlier estimates. GDP rose by 5.5% in the second quarter, above the initial indication for growth of 4.8%. It means the economy is about 3.3% below where it was before the pandemic. Meanwhile house prices chalked up a 5^th straight month of double-digit rises. GBP/USD is still in the doldrums however after two large down days, with the 1.340 round number support tested this morning. Fears that the Bank of England will be raising rates just as growth is stagnating is hurting sentiment towards the pound a touch, whilst the dollar is going gang busters. The US Dollar Index has broken above 94 with an exceptionally strong move yesterday and EURUSD has a 1.15 handle again for the first time since July last year. USD is just moving a little lower in early trade after yesterday’s rampage.

EUR/USD Daily Chart

Briefly

• China’s manufacturing sector entered contraction for the first time since the pandemic 
• Oxford Nanopore Technologies shares open at 545p on debut, above the IPO price of 425p, extend gains to trade +40% higher around 588p. 
• Look ahead to German inflation later in the session, plus more from Powell and a raft of Fed speakers. Chicago PMI and weekly unemployment claims also on the tape alongside the final US Q2 GDP reading.