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Short The FTSE; S&P Will Struggle At 1875

Published 10/04/2014, 08:34

The FTSE 100 became rather bullish in the end yesterday. The initial short I took at 6620 got stopped out. But a few were gained off the higher resistance area at 6649. However, the bulls still continued their rally and we saw a high of 6670.

Interestingly, the S&P 500 nearly reached that 1875 resistance area from which I think it will struggle to push on. I mentioned a Gold buy at 1301 yesterday and that has worked well, gold now sitting at 1316.

With gold rising, the S&P nearly at a decent longer term resistance level, the FTSE likely to encounter resistance at 6685ish today, then it will be the bears’ time again soon I reckon.

Yesterday’s release of the Fed's latest meeting minutes eased concern about the timing of future interest-rate rises.

"These minutes are calming for the markets," Jeffrey Kleintop, chief market strategist at LPL Financial LLC, which manages about $414 billion, said by phone from Boston. "It was clearly stated that the projections overstated the likely shift in rates. A slower pace of interest rates seems more likely here than from the statements."

Several Fed policy makers said a rise in their median projection for the main interest rate exaggerated the likely speed of tightening, according to minutes of their March 18-19 meeting released today.

FTSE Outlook

We have a bit of resistance at 6655, initially. However, I think that will break and we will see stronger resistance at 6685ish. Therefore, I prefer a short there to target the pivot for today at 6626, and possibly lower. If that pivot were to break then lower targets are 6593 and 6583 both being the bottom of the Bianca channels (See chart below).

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Should that 6685 level break, then the bulls will most likely be aiming for 6710 (around the top of both the Bianca channels) and 6730 (top of the 10 day Raff). Higher resistance are 6770 and 6800 - but I think the S&P will struggle at 1875ish so the chase of the FTSE getting that high are slim, but never say never!

We pretty much had a trending day yesterday with minimal pull backs off the resistance levels. So, I think today will see a bit of consolidation as it is prone to do after a run up (or down).
FTSE 30 Minute Chart


Daily Raff Channels
FTSE Daily Raff Channels


Bianca Trends
FTSE Bianca Chart

Gold

I said yesterday that a dip to 1301 and then a long from there was probably going to be the play and that has worked out perfectly. I went long at 1302 (was a little too early) and my stop is now at 1306.

Gold 30 Minute Chart

We are testing the top of the 30 minute channel that is still in play from yesterday, so we might get a little dip from this 1316 area, though I am hoping for a breakout after the weakness last week and a rise to 1322.
Gold 30 Minute Chart

S&P

I have 1873/1875 as a fairly key resistance area and we are not far off it. Coupled with the resistance at 6685 on the FTSE, I am thinking we might start to see a bit of bearishness creeping in.

Should the bulls hold on though and break that level they will be targeting 1890 and 1903. Support today is 1865 (daily pivot) and 1858. If that 1858 breaks, then 1850 and 1844 are next. Shorts around 1873 and 1875 with stops at 1877 would be my play here today.
S&P Daily Chart

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DAX

The DAX is just above its daily pivot at 9509, so it should find support there on any initial dip. Resistance wise, 9578 and then 9606 the latter of which I feel is worth a short - that could tally with the FSTE hitting 6685 and S&P 1875.

It would be nice of all 3 lined up at the same time for optimal short entries. Support after the pivot is 9500 (being a round number), but a break below that should see 9440 -- the bottom of the 20 day Raff channel.

DAX Daily Chart

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