Europe
Volatility was down on Monday as European markets held their ground at multi-week highs having retraced around two-thirds of the losses felt in October after mixed economic data from China failed to budge markets significantly one way or the other.
The Italian FTSE MIB was the standout poor performer in European indices today thanks to a big descent in Italian industrial output in September. Both Italy and France are disappointing in almost every data point of late increasing pressure on the respective leaderships to institute the kind of structural reforms carried out in Spain and Greece.
The big test for continental equities will be the GDP reports on Friday, should Germany muster a bit of growth then it may be enough for shares to catch-up those in the US and recover October highs.
In the UK, focus has shifted toward Wednesday’s Bank of England quarterly inflation outlook and as such prices may flat line until then.
The slight pullback in commodity prices was enough to prompt some strong performances from mining companies including Anglo American (LONDON:AAL), Antofagasta (LONDON:ANTO) and Glencore Xstrata Plc (LONDON:GLEN).
Shares in Serco Group (LONDON:SRP) fell by a third after a profit warning triggered a rights issue, Group 4 Securicor Plc (LONDON:GFS) and Capita were also lower in sympathy.
US
With minimal economic and earnings drivers, US stocks drifted higher with generally positive sentiment on Monday.
Alibaba (NYSE:BABA)shares were active in anticipation of Singles day. Five years ago, Alibaba and its competitors, including Jd.Com(NASDAQ:JD) and dangdang.com created Singles Day on November 11 because the number 1 looks like a stick and in China people call single men "bare sticks". They provided a big discount on this day to encourage single men to overcome loneliness by shopping online for themselves.
It's now a cultural phenomenon across the whole country and in 2013 Alibaba did $5.8 billion in sales on Singles day. The whole of the US spent $1.9 billion online on Black Friday. Another big day tomorrow could set up Alibaba shares to sustain life above $100
FX
The {{8827|US Dollar} }was lower across all major FX currencies on Monday as the mixed unemployment report on Friday was further digested and interpreted as a reason to hold back for aggressive dollar-bulls.
The higher beta New Zealand currency as well as the oil price-correlated Norwegian Krone and Canadian dollar were top performers on the day.
Commodities
Crude Oil prices jumped to their highest level in a week on Monday as the WTI contract saw profit-taking at the bottom of its long-term trading range at prices not seen since June 2012. The momentum of price declines started to taper going into OPEC’s ‘World Oil Outlook’ last Thursday and may continue to trade sideways until the cartel’s meeting on November 27th.
The content of OPEC’s outlook needs to be taken with a grain of salt; it’s not as if the primary benefices of high oil prices would commission a report projecting oil will fall back $30 per barrel. The November 27th meeting will be the more important once since it’s then that OPEC may be decided to cut production. With slowing global demand and a supply-glut thanks to increased production in the US shale boom; a price cut by OPEC is widely seen as the only possibility for a recovery in oil prices.
Having crashed through $1,180 per oz., the year-and-a-half support, goldhas now bounced back after the mixed NFP on Friday; what was a floor to prices could now act as the ceiling.
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