Friday followed the arrows with the dip and rise, but rather frustratingly not quite dipping to the ideal entry point and taking the order. It certainly recovered during the day, to the point that now 6770 is resistance for today. Shrugged off ("climbed a wall of worry") the fears over Russia, Israel, Gaza etc....
The rhetoric continues with Putin over the shooting down of MH17 so markets will be watching to see how that pans out in time. More sanctions maybe? Since hitting 6650 the other day, the FTSE has certainly turned up and the 10 day Raffs are once again pointing up, and we have further US company results out this week.
FTSE Outlook
Fridays high of 6770 on the FTSE 100 will be resistance today, with 6801 above that. Should the bulls break that, then the top of the 10 day Bianca channel is at 6815. With the military and political turmoil, the bulls will certainly have a fight on their hands to reach the upper targets.
However, looking at the daily chart there is a cluster of resistance around the 6815/6820 area - should that break 6850 is the next likely resistance, I think if it got above that during all this carry on then its a likely the FTSE 100 will go for that all time high, though its been trying hard to avoid doing that this year while the US and DAX were charging ahead.
Todays pivot is 6730 so we may well get support there if 6744 breaks. Lower support is 6714 were we have some minor PRT lines. Should it reach that low (and/or go lower) then the bears are back in contention for summer declines, as the daily EMAs are still in a bearish mode.
I have circled the main resistance area for me today, which is that 6770/6788 area - I think the bulls will struggle at this area.
Key Levels to Watch
Support so entry levels for a possible long
- 6744
- 6730 daily pivot
- 6714
- 6649
Resistance so entry levels for a possible short
- 6770
- 6785
- 6801
- 6815
- 6825
- 6850
Daily Raff Channels
Bianca Trends
Gold
Gold is currently in a nice rising 30 minute channel with support at 1308ish and resistance at 1323 and 1330. Calculated levels give 1313 as resistance so would need to break that to hit that upper channel area, but generally it looks like it could have a rise today. I think a long around here with a stop at 1305, to target 1320+ looks doable. A rise in gold would tally with the indices levelling off and dropping possibly (FTSE from that 6770, 6785 area)
S&P
Todays pivot is 1973 for the S&P 500 so we should get initial support there, though 1971 looks stronger. If it moved below that then 1960 is the next support level. I think that 1971/1973 will hold for a run to 1980 today, and 1985 above that. There is still a chance that the bulls will charge and 1991 is on their radar.
I have read some pundits calling for 2000 or slightly above though! I think 1985 is fairly key today as a move above that level will keep things bullish; failing to break that will send it back down. A good shorting level therefore, with a stop at 1987 and see what happens.
Dax
As with the other indices we are above the daily pivot for DAX which is 9699 today, so support there initially. Resistance is 9745 and 9785. If the pivot were to break then 9680 is next support, and a break of that would put the bears in control.
It is worth a long there with a stop at 9666. If the bulls did take control today and broke those resistances, 9820 is a key level and a break through that would probably see 10,000 again.
