I think this week will mostly be known as range week, and a very small range at that! Not a lot happened yesterday after that initial dip down to the supports levels at 6865 and 6855, but then fortunately we had a little rise in the afternoon. This, despite the US looking a bit bearish with the S&P dropping off the 1900.
The FTSE 100 was just afield to reach the 6892 level (it got 6888) but well done those that held those 2 longs till the late afternoon.
The FTSE stayed up pretty well considering the US shed quite a few points (Dow was -100, S&P -10), which makes me think as long as the support levels hold today we will get one last leg up, though the bears are starting to wake up now.
We are still having fairly positive news out of the UK, so won't be long before interest rate rises are brought in (despite what was said yesterday about there being no rush). I am thinking a small one (.25bps) at the end of Q4 2014, then another small one 6 to 9 months later, after the election would be the most likely path.
FTSE Outlook
Only ended up with the 2 longs yesterdays as it didn't reach the shorting level at 6892, let along 6905. I am still favouring shorts at these levels so will short with a bigger stake than a long for example, as looking at yesterdays action cross the pond the US bears are certainly starting to emerge.
For the FTSE, support is is 6860 and 6850, as well as the Bianca 20 day channel bottom at 6854, so longs off this support area should be okay as I am thinking we will get one more leg up after that dip yesterday (based on the US markets). We have decent support, there is a pretty decent 30 minute channel in play, and the FTSE held up well despite the US lowing biggish yesterday. So, there are certainly the foundations & reasons for it to go a little higher today.
I don't think we will just get one headline here in the UK about the FTSE being at a 14 year high and then it dips. While its up here i think it will at least want to test the all-time high, if for no other reason to generate some good publicity for the economy.).
Todays pivot is 6870, right where we are as I write this, but i have put in an initial little dip to the 6860 support, before a rise to the 6880 and 6906 area. 6906 is the top of the Bianca 10 day channel. If the US does push on for another leg up then that could tally with the top of the 20 day Bianca channel and 20 day Raff at around 6960. The 10 day Raff is currently at 6927.
Daily Raff Channels
Bianca Trends
Gold
Gold seems to be holding above the 1300 level for the moment and there is decent looking support on the 30 minute chart below. If it can break yesterdays high at 1309 then 1311 and 1313 are the next likely targets. With gold starting to rise and indices reaching record highs, there could be a bit of money inflow into the "safer" gold.
S&P
The S&P 500 dropped off from the 1900 area yesterday so taking a bit of a breather, but the scene has now been set for 1903 resistance. A break of that leads to 1911 and 1919.Ideally today the bulls will get some momentum to break 1895 to push to that 1903 level and maybe past it by the weekend. Support-wise, today we have 1886 (10ema on daily) and 1881.
DAX
The DAX is slightly below the daily pivot at 9753 so any initial rise will need to break that level. The main resistance levels today for the DAX are 9784, 9808 and 9833. I expect it to rise a bit further yet. Will it get the 10000?! Might coincide with the S&P hitting the 1919.
Support wise, its right on S1 at 9734 which could well hold.