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NFP Friday with the bulls on the back foot

Published 07/10/2022, 08:57

The 7105 resistance level first thing yesterday proved to be the line in the sand and the bears took the price a lot lower yesterday as fears came back to the fore. However, we have NFP today, and along with a usual Friday warning, keep your guard up today. The NFP forecast is 250k versus 315k previously, along with unemployment forecasted to be 3.7% again. That news is out at 1330, so we may well see a "buy the rumour, sell the news" session till then.

Initially it looks like we may see a rise from this 6990 level up towards the daily pivot at the 7014, and possibly all the way to the key fib at 7057. That also ties in with a test of the now bearish 2h resistance at 7061 so should we see this level then a short here looks to be worth a go. 

Above the 7060 level then the bulls would need to break the very close R1 level of 7069, and we also have the top of the 20d Raff channel at 7076. Might be a big ask for a Friday though. But an NFP Friday can always surprise, and we may well see a US pump later this evening. Above this level then 7100 round number would be of note, with 7120 and 7140 daily resistance above that.

For the bears, they would be looking to move this below 7000 and a test of the key fib at 6957 looks possible. That ties in with yesterday's low, at 6960 as well, so a break of this would get things bearish again, with 6924 S1 the next level of note. Below that then S2 at 6862 would come into play as well, though I am not expecting it to get that bearish today, unless NFP really plays havoc with the markets..... Or the UK government!

The S&P500 looks like it should rise towards the 3780 level where we have R1 and the key fib, and just below its 2h resistance at 3793. A rise and dip on this would also make sense. The bears will be looking to break 3726 as that would likely see 3707 S1 and a level that we may well bounce at. 

Not too much more to say really, once again keep an eye on the key levels and remember NFP at 13:30.

Have a great weekend!

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