By Vincent Mivelaz
As inflation slows and the Indian economy grows (7.10% in December 2017), we remain confident that market risk is being distanced. The Reserve Bank of India will therefore maintain its current interest rate at 6% at its next monetary policy meeting on 5 April. USD/INR is currently at 64.86 (+1.86% this year) and expected to remain in this range near term.
India is showing openness, holding recent talks with the Philippines President Rodrigo Duterte, Iranian Prime Minister Hassan Rouhani and French President Emmanuel Macron about topics such as industrial developments, security and education.
February’s Wholesale Price Index came out yesterday at 2.48% annually, confirming our view of moderate expansion for Manufactured Goods, Primary Articles and Fuel & Power.
The recently published February Consumer Price Index shows a similar pattern at 4.44% following January’s 5.07%. This supports moderate inflation, giving further relief to the Reserve Bank of India.