The JPMorgan Global PMI™ (compiled by IHS Markit) edged down for a third successive month in January, dipping from 52.7 in December to 52.3, its lowest since last July but nevertheless still indicating solid annualised GDP growth of approximately 3%.
The weaker reading was in part attributable to rising coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases in many countries, which in turn often led to tighter social distancing restrictions. These measures were reported to have not only curbed demand but also stifled supply capacity, the latter exacerbated by restocking and low employment in many companies. However, the adverse impact on global GDP from the pandemic in recent months so far looks considerably less severe than seen during the first half of 2020. This is being corroborated by official GDP data, which for example showed solid gains in the US and China and a smaller than feared contraction in the eurozone.
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