The FTSE 100 enjoyed a nice bounce off the 6800 level yesterday, though it took a while to get going. It rose to our 6850 target thanks to the ECB and the negative interest rates.
Unfortunately, the short order at 6850 didn't quite get hit, which was a shame as the price fell right back to 6800 again for a nice double bottom bounce. We will have to see how the negative rates play out over the forthcoming months, though they didn't go for more QE, as was widely expected. Today, of course, is NFP (Non Farm Payrolls) in the US at 13:30. An increase of 210k is expected.
FTSE Outlook
The key slightly bigger picture levels I am watching today are 6800 for support again, and 6875 for resistance. We have both the top of the 10 and 20 day Bianca channels and the 10 day Raff. If it spikes up to that level on NFP then that could well be a good short.
The daily pivot is 6818 today, so we may well get initial support there. But, it is worth noting that the FTSE is lagging the S&P, which yet again went on to make new highs. Or is the FTSE telling the truth and the others are just getting ahead of themselves (looking at the S&P likely to hit 1945 today)?
Initial resistance today is 6848 then the 6875 area (with a stop above 6785). If that were to break, then 6912 is in play as the next resistance. Support-wise, after the 6818 pivot, is 6800 and then 6789. If the bears get fuelled by an NFP figure that upsets the market and really start to go for it then 6700 beckons.
I have put an initial rise to the 6845 area, but pre-NFP is going to be pretty choppy, with most keeping their powder dry.
Daily Raff Channels
Bianca Trends
Gold
1260 is initial resistance for gold today. It has been gaining well since the 1240 area lows recently, perhaps foretelling a dip in equities (and FTSE is leading the way after all). If 1250 breaks today as initial support then this move is false and it will be back at 1240. I think a short at 1260 area will pay off but Gold is likely to get some movement around NFP time and get pretty spiky.
S&P
The S&P 500 hit yet another new high and exceeded the resistance levels I was looking at yesterday. It looks like 1945 is in the cards today, probably on an NFP spike, possibly even 1948, on the proviso that 1943 is broken as that is initial resistance. The daily pivot is 1935 so expect that to be initial support, with 1922 below that. NFP Friday, so it is likely to be all over the place.
DAX
The DAX finally reached the 10000 level and brought out the shorters for a quick 88 points. Will it be a one hit wonder as it hasn't touched it again, yet? Support at the daily pivot is 9952 today, and if the high from yesterday is broken at 10014, then 10040 is next resistance, then 10070.
Below the pivot the next support is 9917.