Friday wasn't so bad in the end, prediction-wise, for the FTSE 100. We got the dip from 6852 though it went a bit lower than the 6821 and hit the stop on that alert I sent, before climbing as expected - and nearly reached my upper target at 6880. Thus, making Friday bullish as expected. The bears haven't got it all their own way just yet. But the week is young! We have some very definite resistance at 6885, and the S&P at 1882, so I am thinking shorts at those levels could be good.
Most of the financial news over the weekend was about the fast rising house prices and what the BoE might do to calm it - though they did say the other day that there wasn't a bubble! I still think interest rates will have their first rise in Q4, though maybe Q3 isn't out of the question.
FTSE Outlook
There was certainly a bit of strength on Friday once it had hit the lows at 6812, the bounce finishing around 6870. The 10 day Bianca channel still has the top at 6909, and support at 6835, so am looking at these levels as wider resistance and support. For today, in the short term, closer support is 6845, whilst movement above 6867 is showing 6885.
Shorts at these levels could come good today, as the S&P failed to break the 1880 on Friday and has now dropped back a bit as well. The DAX wasn't quite as bullish on Friday as these other two, only climbing form 9570 to 9620.
I have 3 main trades today, mainly with a short bias as you can see below. There is support at 6845 so a little long there is also worth a go - a break of that support will see a move lower this week. the bears tried to break the bottom of the daily channels last week, I think they will try again this week.
I was watching for 1910+ for the S&P for the rise prior to that bearishness at the end of last week - its now looking like that might be optimistic, and its topped out at 1902.
The good thing about 6845 is that it is the bottom of the 30 minute channel that is rising, hence the long at that area.
I have put bullish arrows with dips off the resistances - I am of two minds as to whether it will push on to the upper target so have put short trades at the 2 main resistances instead.
Daily Raff Channels
Bianca Trends
Gold
I have put the daily chart for gold showing a PRT channel, with support at 1283, though below that we have 1278 - the horizontal PRT line. If 1288 breaks as support then it will probably dip to both those levels.
The EMAs are still bearish on a daily view thus favouring shorts, though if support holds then the bulls will need to break above 1300 again. Until equities turn down I think gold is going to hover around this level until we get the "short equities, long gold" situation.
S&P
Bulls failure to break 1880 on Friday could mark the next dip on the S&P 500. Bulls will need to break 1879 today to reach 1882 and 1892. Today's pivot is 1873 so possible support there on any initial dip - might well tally with FTSE also finding support at 6845 for a little push up.
DAX
Fridays low for the DAX at 9577 is the base now for the bulls to defend, though below that I have 9550 and the bottom of the Raffs both at 9530. If the bulls can do it today they will need to overcome resistance at 9660, to target 9710. Though weak the DAX is still technically trending up, looking at the daily channels.