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FTSE Bears Looking Trapped

Published 22/05/2014, 07:34

Bulls seem to have a found a bit of strength overnight following the Fed yesterday (and decent Chinese data), and those short levels yesterday were only good for a few points. The bears were not able to hold the price below 6800, though interestingly, with all that bearishness earlier in the week, this rise is now not far off the top of the 10 day Raff channels on DAX, S&P 500 and FTSE 100 (9768, 1897, 6874 respectively). Are a lot of bears suddenly starting to look a bit trapped?

FTSE Outlook

That bearishness was short lived with the bears failing to keep the price below 6800 for very long. 6780 support held yesterday, though with that bearishness, it has dropped the top of the daily channel down to 6875 - both at the 10 day raff and Bianca are at this level. Good place for a short! If it breaks, then 6919 looks feasible, however unlikely, considering we were at 6780 yesterday. Initial shorter term resistance for today is 6858.

Looking at the 30 minute FTSE 100 chart, we have had a bit of a breakout of the PRT channel overnight, so with resistance at 6830, we may well dip back to test the top of that channel before climbing higher later in the day.

FTSE 30 minute Chart

Daily Raff Channels

Daily Raff Chart

Bianca Trends

BIanca Chart

Gold

Looking at the daily channel for gold, it seems to be playing game pretty well - support at 1285, resistance at 1305 then 1325ish.

On a shorter time scale, if 1285 breaks, the 1278.5 looks like the next support, whilst a rise to 1296 and break could reach 1301 today. I'm still not totally trusting of a continued rise in the indices, so if they drop back then, in theory, gold will rise though 1301 could be worth a small short.

Gold Daily Chart

S&P

The S&P 500 is now near the top of the 10 day channel at 1897 with a possible 1902 on the horizon well (being the top of the 20 day Raff). I think a short at 1897 is definitely worth a go on this today. Support is 1873, and the daily pivot at a slightly closer 1883.4.
S&P 500 Daily Chart

DAX

The DAX is at resistance of 9732 tallying with an initial dip on this and the FTSE 100. The daily pivot is 9664, so I think that today this will follow a similar pattern to the FTSE - initial short from 9732 > 9664 > 9770 top of the Raff channel.
DAX Daily Chart

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