Both leading stocks in London and the pound have made marginal gains at the start of the trading week with the FTSE 100 ticking higher by just a handful of points and remaining close to record highs.
UK inflation data to drive GBP
Even though politics remains a potential source of movement in the pound, the currency will most likely be driven this week by the latest inflation data from the UK. Tomorrow will see the last CPI reading ahead of the November rate decision from the BoE, and the release could well be a deciding factor in whether the bank will choose to hike rates for the first time in a decade.
Whilst the economy on the whole has continued to perform fairly well since last summer’s EU referendum, it is far from firing on all cylinders but a persistent overshoot of the BoE’s inflation target has led a majority to expect an imminent tightening of monetary policy. The CPI for September is forecast to rise to 3% y/y which is markedly above the 2% mandate and should the reading come in around here or higher then it would become increasingly hard for Governor Carney and fellow MPC members to justify holding rates at their current record-low levels.
Miners make 2017 peak
Stocks from the mining sector are amongst the best performing on the FTSE 100 this morning with Anglo American (LON:AAL) and Glencore (LON:GLEN) both hitting their highest levels of the year. In contrast to the UK where inflation is threatening to spiral out of control, the US continues to undershoot its own CPI forecasts and the lack of inflation growth on the other side of the Atlantic is threatening to cause the Fed to adopt a more dovish policy stance.
Gold futures surged back above the 1300/oz level on Friday after the latest US CPI data came in below forecast and there has been further gains seen this morning for the precious metal. Palladium is also moving higher, breaking above the $1000 handle and in doing so hitting its highest level since 2001. Glencore is one of the biggest producers of Palladium and the rise in price has certainly contributed to the shares hitting their 52-week highs this morning.