Interesting end to the day yesterday with a fair few swings as the S&P 500 dropped off the 2849 resistance level and took the FTSE down with it late afternoon. The FTSE managed to poke its nose above 7200 to 7211 before dropping back as the US markets dropped. We are being driven by Brexit and trade talk at the moment. The US and China are in discussion at the moment, while hopes of a Brexit deal looked a bit more likely last night. Till the wind changes again!
For today we have initial support at the 7140 level and if we get an initial drop down to here then we may well see a bounce back up to retest the 7200 level. I am still awaiting a test of the 25ema on the daily chart, which has now dropped down to 7236. As such if we get a rise to this level then a short off this level looks good still. The S&P has moved above its 25ema and is now testing the recent high at 2955. Support is down at 2922 and 2916 for today so if it drops down to here then a long here looks to be worth a go.
On the FTSE, below 7140 then we have the fib at 7116 and this is the recent low area from yesterday evening. Below this then 7090 is next up.
The trend is bearish on the daily chart as you can see from the Raff channels heading down, so a rally up to that daily moving average and then a subsequent drop would fit quite well, but the bulls will need to be quick out the blocks today. With the messy backdrop and the failure to hold onto the gains above 7200 yesterday the bears do seem to have the upper hand.
The ASX 200 (Australia) had a dip and rise pattern today and we may well get something along similar lines. Especially if the S&P drops off from this 2955 double top level. Cable moved higher yesterday on hopes of a deal, which helped suppress the FTSE. If that recoils a bit from the 12500 area then it may well help the FTSE to rise.
So, slightly more cautious today as we have the final day of the US/China talks, and its Friday! Less risk today with lower stakes too.
News highlights include German CPI (F), IEA Oil report, Canadian Jobs, US Import & Export Prices, University of Michigan Sentiment and Baker Hughes Rig Count, ECB’s Draghi and de Guindos, Fed’s Kashkari, Rosengren and Kaplan, supply from Italy and US-China meeting
Have a great weekend.