EUR/GBP
A sequence of 3 up weeks ended as, in line with our bearish call, the failure at the base of the weekly Ichimoku Cloud translated into a renewal of selling. Initial upside failed to retest the Cloud seriously or the 200 day average with the subsequent reversal yielding 4 down days, a break of the 13 day average and a move towards the bottom of a negative daily Keltner channel. A note of caution is introduced as the daily Cloud base and a 50% correction point held Friday’s 3 week lows but with sentiment negative, our call is Bearish, but we leave room to Sell a Rally to 0.8313, last week's Marabuzo line. The risk is 0.8363 with targets of 0.8215, 76% of this year’s rise, 0.8180 and 0.8158.
EUR/USD
Our bearish, and sell on rally, call was confirmed last week as initial upside proved limited and attracted fresh selling. The top was capped by the 13 day moving average and, sold at lower levels on each of the last 4 days, resulted in a 2nd down week in a row. This leaves sentiment and Momentum negative although a note of caution is introduced by the fact that the downside stalled, and attracted some profit taking, after correcting half of the rise from this year’s low and ahead of the daily Ichimoku Cloud. Nonetheless our call is Bearish but to leave room to Sell a Rally to 1.3813. The risk is 1.3876 with an immediate target of 1.3705, last week's bottom. A move through that point then targets 1.3664, a 62% correction of this year’s rise, and 1.3593, a broader 76%.
The risk is a move above 1.3876, last week's top, with potential back to 1.3934, the 2 week top.
GBP/CHF
Last week’s outlook for GBPCHF highlighted the potential for investors to buy the market from close to 1.4455, a 62% pull-back to the entire Aug-Jan rally to a 13 month high. Bullish signals have subsequently been confirmed, sentiment posting a 2nd higher weekly low on a row, for a gain of over 2 ½ Big Figs on the week overall. Prices have closed above their 100 & 200 day average rates, which is positive, but with intra-day sentiment overstretched, this week’s outlook is to buy on the open and at 1.4676, Thursday’s open, with a stop loss at 1.4586, Wednesday’s base. Targets are to 1.4869, March’s high, 1.4978, February’s top and then towards 1.5126, January’s 13 month high trade.
GBP/JPY
Despite closing the previous week unchanged, a small sequence of higher daily lows, which had been formed from close to the 100 day average rate, left last week’s signals for GBPJPY pointing higher. These were confirmed with a strong gain of 2 ¾ Big Figs, a rally which has ended a sequence of lower weekly highs. This is positive, but with intra-day sentiment overstretched, the outlook for this week is to buy on the open and at 169.73, Friday’s open, with a stop loss at 168.74, Thursday’s base. Targets are to 171.61, the 13th March high, 172.14, the 11th March top and then towards 172.89, the 3 week high trade.
FTSE 100
Q1 signals to stay long and buy FTSE on the dip have been confirmed. However, monthly sentiment has been mixed, as rallies have been attracting sellers at a bear trend formed since last May’s 14 year high, while dips have been attracting buyers near the key moving average rates. A bullish daily Hammer on 20th March has signalled improving sentiment and although a sequence of lower weekly highs remains intact and signals aren’t strong, the outlook for this week is to cautiously buy on the open and then at 6507.5, Thursday’s opening trade, with a stop loss at 6467.0, Tuesday’s base. Targets are to 6587.0, last week’s high, 6643.0, the 2 week top and then towards 6683.5, the 3 week high trade.