Highlights
The US Election today
Timing is Everything
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Please note: All data, figures and graphs below are valid as of November 8th. All trading carries risk. Only risk capital you're prepared to lose.
Overview
Going into the elections, the markets are certainly excited. Stock markets around the world are rising as investors are trying to price in the most likely outcome of a Clinton victory.
Also, the fact that Clinton will not be placed in handcuffs shortly after taking office is the icing on the cake.
Stock markets in Europe and the United States rose by an astonishing 2%!
The US dollar rallied yesterday while gold and silver were crushed. The Trump-o-meter (USD/MXN) is down near its lowest levels since the first debate.
However, just in the last few hours the "FBI relief rally" has come to a halt. Gold and silver are off their lows and the Asian stock markets are up but certainly not flying.
Despite all the spectacular moves yesterday volatility did come down slightly with the VIX closing at 18.71...
However, this thing is far from over. According to fivethirtyeight.com, which aggregates all the polling data, Trump still has a 28% chance of victory.
That's about equivalent to the odds of throwing a 5 or less on two 6 sided dice. It's difficult but within the realm of possibility.
Perhaps they don't believe that the polls are completely accurate. Or, perhaps they see what some of the larger hedge funds have been seeing. That the bigger market moves will come on the off chance of a Trump victory.
Timing is Everything
There are 3 different time zones in the United States so different polls will close at different times. In the states where the results are 'predetermined' the results will come in quicker. Whereas in the swing states, they need to count each and every vote, which can take hours, or even days.
For our clients in Australia, China, and the East, results will come in comfortably throughout the day. For everybody else, it's going to be a long night.
The earliest indications should be coming in at about 1:00 GMT. By then we should know the results from Florida, Ohio, and North Carolina. If Clinton has one or more of those we may get to bed early. But if Trump takes 3 out of 3, the markets should get excited.
By 2:00 GMT things should be pretty clear. If Trump has not been knocked out by then the western swing states will come into play. Polls in Utah, Iowa, and Arizona at 3:00 GMT.
The point is, a Clinton victory could certainly be called early but if we do see Trump dominance early on, it will need to carry on until 4:00 GMT or even later. If there's any type of dispute, we could be going for days.
This content is for information and educational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice or an investment recommendation.
Past performance is not an indication of future results. All trading carries risk. Only risk capital you're prepared to lose.