Highlights
What are the chances?
Huge Market Gaps
S&P500 set to snap a 36 year losing streak!
Please note: All data, figures & graphs are valid as of November 7th. All trading carries risk. Only risk capital you're prepared to lose.
Two Little Angels
Last night, the Director of the FBI, James Comey, declared that they did not find any new evidence buried in the 650,000 emails that were found on Anthony Weiner's laptop.
The announcement came on Sunday evening, just before the financial markets opened for the week. However, this new update has very little chance of actually influencing people's opinions. At this point, most people have already decided who they are going to vote for. The only question is voter turnout. Perhaps this news will encourage more Democrats to actually go out and vote.
Here we can see the chances of winning over the last few months from fivethirtyeight.com
Now, this information is largely based on polling data that could be inaccurate. As we saw in the UK-EU referendum, polls don't always predict the final result. According to Trump, they're rigged against him, and indeed it's possible that many Trump supporters will decline to answer polls or say that they are supporting him. I mean, who wants to be on the side of somebody with so much controversy hanging over them?
It's not that any one candidate would necessarily be better than the other. We're dealing with two of the most disliked people to ever run for the US high office. Both are considered to be pathological liars by the other side, so we really don't know what their policies will look like. However, the market has chosen a narrative and luckily for the day traders has been following it quite religiously.
So far, the reactions have been as follows...
Good news for Trump: Bad for the Mexican peso, bad for stocks, and good for gold and silver.
Good news for Clinton: Good for the USD, and crude oil.
Market Overview
With such great news as the exoneration of Hilary Clinton, the markets have reacted exactly as we would expect. Now let's take a look at them gaps...
USD/MXN (Trump-o-meter)
Gold
SPX500
The SPX500 is the most critical really. Friday's losses marked the longest losing streak for this index in 36 years. If it manages to stay above Friday's closing price, which seems quite likely, it will finally break the negativity and could encourage a lot of sidelined investors to re-enter the markets.
This content is for information and educational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice or an investment recommendation.
Past performance is not an indication of future results. All trading carries risk. Only risk capital you're prepared to lose.