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Crude Oil: More Upside in the Offing as Geopolitical Situation Worsens

Published 04/10/2024, 06:53
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Oil prices surged on Thursday as escalating tensions in the Middle East stoked fears of potential supply disruptions in the region. The conflict between Israel and Iran, along with ongoing clashes involving Hezbollah, has raised concerns among investors about the stability of oil production and transportation in one of the world’s most critical energy corridors.

Escalating Tensions in the Middle East

An Israeli bombing in Beirut that killed at least six people has heightened tensions with Hezbollah, while a recent Iranian missile attack on Israel has sparked fears of a wider regional conflict. These events have led to growing apprehension that Israel might target Iranian oil infrastructure in retaliation.

Such a move could potentially trigger a response from Iran, including the possibility of blocking the Strait of Hormuz, a vital chokepoint through which approximately one-fifth of the world’s daily oil supply passes.

Market analysts are particularly concerned about the potential for Iran to attack Saudi infrastructure, as it did in 2019. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s statement that Iran would “pay” for its missile attack, coupled with Iran’s warning that any retaliation would be met with “vast destruction,” has further fueled anxiety in the oil markets.

Oil Prices Rise Amid Geopolitical Tensions

In response to these geopolitical tensions, oil prices saw significant gains on Thursday. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures rose by $1.58, or 2.25%, to $71.68 per barrel, while Brent crude futures increased by $1.52, or 2.06%, reaching $75.42 per barrel. As of 10:52 AM EDT at the time of writing, WTI crude was trading at $72.99, up 4.12%, with Brent crude at $76.66, up 3.73%.

Despite the sharp increase, price gains were somewhat tempered by a stronger global supply outlook. The U.S. Energy Information Administration reported that U.S. crude inventories rose by 3.9 million barrels in the previous week, indicating robust domestic supply.

Additionally, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has stated that it has sufficient spare capacity to compensate for a potential full loss of Iranian supply, should the conflict escalate to that point.

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Neither the author, Tim Fries, nor this website, The Tokenist, provide financial advice. Please consult our website policy prior to making financial decisions.

This article was originally published on The Tokenist. Check out The Tokenist’s free newsletter, Five Minute Finance, for weekly analysis of the biggest trends in finance and technology.

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