Corn: Trend Down?

Published 03/08/2018, 08:04
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Corn

Corn Chart

I wrote last time

At this moment I suggest it may wish to probably have another attempt lower...maybe more than one attempt...Finally, I note the Dead Cross of the Short MA (currently 365) down through the Short/Medium MA (currently 375) plus the likely and key possible Dead Cross of the Short/Medium MA down through the Medium MA (currently 384j...that might be a signal to attempt lower and may happen late this week/early next week.

Well we did attempt lower but it wasn't until early the following week when we fell all the way down to just short of the oft warned about and gigantic 2006-to-date Uptrend (currently 335) which has been coincident with a Gap from Sep 2016 of 332 - 335. These two, with the Uptrend predominate, caused the halt and turn around back up ahead of Changeover with a Bullish Outside Day (see Daily Chart above).

We've risen with a Key Reversal Up mid the following week and broke through the Long MA (currently 374) last week. It was at this point a mild scare came upon the Bulls as we'd formed a possible Spike Top over the Long MA but under the key 2018 50% Fib at 378 and the very close 50% Fib of the 2016 move at 379. This lasted for a day as the market considered whether to keep in the Neutral state that staying over the Long MA but under the Medium MA would mean.

It chose to stay and actually moved higher punching up over the Medium MA but only closing over it once. The market turned back down and we are at this time back between the Long and Medium MAs...and therefore in Neutral. It doesn't look like the market is happy here. It has to decide whether to move higher over the Medium MA or back down below the Long MA. The space of decision is limited but I suppose it could choose to go the third way of sideways...but again...it is a narrow area and potentially narrowing still. Given where we are and with one up, two down (sort of) and one sideways.J think it appropriate to move the bullet point to sideways because that's where we are but also that we may on the outside...stay here a bit.

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