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Coffee: Trend Down

Published 03/08/2018, 08:03
Updated 09/07/2023, 11:32
RC
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Coffee

Coffee Chart

Last time it looked like we were about to drop down. This we did and at the same time pushing down through the Middle Tine of the 2017 Schiff Pitchfork (currently 108.02) down to the 106.90 low. However, that day of the low we formed a Huge Key Reversal Up which may have been the signal to see a major test higher. We did follow on up for two days but failed coming close to the recent 50% Fib at 117.03 and fell...only to rally at the last day of Changeover with another but much smaller Key Reversal Up. We did follow on higher to this but it was a lacklustre performance and within three days we'd formed a Bearish Outside Day which, apart from a two day (actually one day in reality) Bullish hiatus, formed a suitable follow on lower.

We are about to hit again the congestion support zone from 2013 which was instrumental last time between 108.50 - 109.90. It will be interesting to see what happens there this time. Finally, we are possibly on for a Weekly Key Reversal on Friday. Closing Friday below 113.60 or above 114.05 will likely result in a Key Reversal Down or Up respectively. On a wider scale, the 50% Fib at 117.03 and the nearby Medium MA at 117.93 marks major resistances stopping the market from going into Neutral whilst the previously mentioned Middle Tine (currently 108.02) is suitably dynamic support. The bullet point went into mildly Bearish last time. With all MAs pointing down it seems appropriate to move the bullet point above into fully Bearish and remove the question mark.

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