Caterpillar (NYSE:CAT) and Honeywell International (NYSE:HON) will round out a busy week of earnings when they each report Q4 2020 results on Friday, Jan. 29 before the open. Both industrial giants are struggling to revive growth during the ongoing pandemic.
A sharp spike in coronavirus cases, the emergence of new variants and renewed lockdown measures globally are certainly not going to help end the rout for industrial materials. In this environment, industrial companies may not hit their 2019 revenue levels until at least 2025, according to analysts’ forecasts cited by Bloomberg.
That said, a strong rebound in their share prices during the past six months shows that investors are optimistic about the global economic recovery in 2021. Both Caterpillar and Honeywell stocks are up more than 30% during the period. CAT closed Wednesday at $180.63, while Honeywell ended the day at $199.38.
Slower construction of everything from cruise ships to pipelines during the coronavirus pandemic is weighing on demand for Caterpillar, an economic bellwether. Caterpillar’s third-quarter sales were down 20% from a year earlier, particularly hurt by the weak oil-and-gas market.
For Honeywell, the biggest drag is coming from the aerospace business, which is under extreme distress due to the deep-rooted problems at Boeing (NYSE:BA) and the virus-triggered collapse in air travel. Amid this gloomy manufacturing outlook, investors have their eye on the company’s transformation into an industrial software company.
Darius Adamczyk, who is in his third year as the CEO, is trying to transform the 135-year industrial giant into an enterprise with a start-up culture. Since taking over at the helm of the company, he has introduced more software-based products to help clients better manage their supply chains.
Positive Catalysts
That business is growing at a 20% annual clip and now has $1.5 billion of sales. Revenue from all software, including code embedded in products, is $4 billion, or about 11% of total sales. Despite the strength of its portfolio, Honeywell’s business has been hit hard by the COVID-19 pandemic, which drastically weakened its aerospace unit, its largest revenue generator.
For both companies, however, there are some positive catalysts that might help to cope with the downturn this year. For Caterpillar, China is showing a promising recovery after the pandemic. The company expects industry-wide construction demand in China to increase for the year as a whole. In the U.S., home builders have increased construction rates in recent months after a huge surge in demand for family homes.
Caterpillar, with $9.3 billion in cash and $14 billion of available liquidity at the end of its third quarter, has enough to get through this downturn.
Another factor that is keeping investor interest alive in these two industrial giants is the Democrats’ victory in the recent elections. President Joe Biden has pledged some $2 trillion—mostly in federal aid—over four years for infrastructure.
“If he links a bill to green-friendly initiatives, that would multiply its effect because greener highways, bridges and buildings require new construction rather than upgrades,” according to a recent analysis by Bloomberg.
Bottom Line
Despite a strong rally in the share prices of Caterpillar and Honeywell during the past six months, we expect a more gradual rebound than what investors might have hoped. We anticipate that will be reflected in the companies’ commentary about the future when they release their earnings tomorrow, which could cause some weakness in their share prices.