GBP/USD
A sequence of six up days ended yesterday as profit taking developed at overbought extremes. Net losses were modest but enough to reverse Friday’s entire net upside with the market closing near the base. Although Asia has seen little movement signals for sentiment we are left negative going into this morning.
Allowing for volatility, our call is Bearish leaving room to Sell a Rally to 1.6653. The risk is 1.6684 with an immediate target of 1.6604, the 13 day average. A move through that point should see the market then focusing on 1.6583 and 1.6555, which was last Thursday’s open and low.
The risk is that selling pressure is weaker than currently assessed – signalled above 1.6684, this week's top, targeting 1.6718.
EUR/GBP
Two days of indecisive trading was followed by a more significant bounce from near the low of the Ichimoku Cloud. Gains were the strongest in six days and moved EURGBP towards the 13/100 day averages and the top of the cloud.
Those points were not breached, however, and it is that failure that is expected to act as the backdrop to today’s price action. Therefore our call is Cautiously Bearish below 0.8337. The immediate objective is 0.8275 and a move through that point focuses on 0.8262, yesterday's low, and 0.8246.
The risk is that selling pressure is being overrated signalled above .8337 to .8363, but probably no higher.
GBP/CHF
Selling from close to the 100 day average rate and the end of a sequence of higher daily lows turned Tuesday’s signals for GBPCHF to bearish. These were confirmed with a 2nd lower daily high and low in a row and an overall loss of just over ¾ths of the Big Fig on the day.
While this is negative, the pull-back may be corrective and it has stalled from between the 200 & 100 day average rates. However, the absence of a buy signal keeps today’s outlook cautiously bearish and the call is to sell on the open and at 1.4697, today’s high in Asia, with a stop loss at 1.4725.
Targets are to 1.4659, yesterday’s low, 1.4630 and then 1.4609, the 200 day average.
GBP/JPY
The last bearish call for GBPJPY was on the 18th of March, but with positive momentum building from the 100 day average rate, bullish signals on the week and for yesterday have been confirmed with six up-days in a row.
Enthusiasm to buy dips has continued in Asia this morning and with no sign yet that this is ending.
However, with intra-day sentiment overstretched, the outlook for Wednesday is to buy on the open and at 172.30, today’s low in Asia, with a stop loss at 171.75, yesterday’s base.
FTSE 100
Bullish signals for the FTSE on the week are being confirmed, but with the last two week rally stalling from close to a daily bear trend, Tuesday’s outlook was cautious and neutral.
Contrary to this view, investor enthusiasm to buy futures has continued, and the market has closed with gains through the trend. This is positive and the outlook for Wednesday is bullish above a stop loss at 6577.0, which was the last 5 hour low on Tuesday. Targets are to 6620.0, 6638.0 and 6700.0, the 2 week high on the Mar contract.
Targets are to 172.89, the 3 week high, 173.59, last month’s top and then towards 174.86, January’s over 5 year peak.