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America First Or America Alone!

Published 09/05/2018, 09:50
Updated 09/03/2019, 13:30
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The markets have so far not seen major changes following Trump's decision to pull the US out of the Iran nuclear deal.

But the oil prices, which had already been trading at their highest level since 2014 are still looking vulnerable to the upside following that decision which had almost been fully priced in.

While it is now Iran's turn to show its reaction to this withdrawal, which has not been met with approval by the European side and surely not by Russia and China.

Trump who has started revising almost all of the US pacts after taking office in the White House has not accepted any recommendations from EU and UK to keep the nuclear pact with Iran unil reaching a new deal.

Trump has re-imposed the previous US sanctions on Iran and now he is looking to halt the oil supplies from Iran, which supported its economy to build new nuclear facilities as he believes.

So, Trump referred yesterday to the probability of imposing sanctions on other countries to threaten those who deal with Iran - what he has done previously with N. Korea basing on that led to the current peace process -showing in the same time that the US will be ready to make a new deal with Iran.

But this situation is looking different as EU and its media are looking to support the current nuclear deal which seems to the EU enough to cap Iran from having nuclear weapons and scrapping this deal can lead to miserable consequences in currently hot region.

At the same time, there are still lots of unsolved trade issues on the table of negotiations between US and EU which have no benefit from scrapping this pact which paved the way for making trade deals with Iran which opened its markets to the EU companies to invest.

While the investments from the Gulf area were flowing toward US, after Trump had taken his office not to EU which has not been excluded yet from his decision to impose the 25% tariff on the US imported steel and 10% tariff on imported aluminum products which has been taken on last Mar. 1 without negations with its countries or making political trade in exchange.

But thanks to Trump for excluding Canada and Mexico for a while until revising NAFTA which has been named by him "a terrible deal and the markets will thank him, if he scraps it and negotiates a better one". Anyway It was kind of him to consider the negotiations first!

While the trade issue with China is still one of the main market concerns and it is still expected to keep containing the market sentiment from time to time pressing down on the equities markets and the global recovery.

As China has about $1.2tr of US Treasuries and the risk of re-diversification them or even the halting of reinvesting them into new US debt can send UST yield curve higher threatening the US recovery and also creditability which is always in check.

China was exporting to US on account for a long time by financing its debt at the same time, but Trump wants to get out of this cycle.

He wanted reflation to the US economy and after reaching internal agreement to execute it this year, he looked for the cost to be paid from the US trade contenders or even partners!

Trump is still looking in sake of more knowledge, before taking such decisions which can make US alone not first as he addressed before taking office.

He has even pulled US out from the TTP free-trade deal directly, after taking his office in the White House without negations and with no delay, even before appointing the resigned white house economic adviser Gary Cohn.

The TTP pact was mainly directed against the Chinese trade benefits and without US, it loses its importance as The Japanese PM Abe said previously following the US withdrawing from it.

Trump refused to take his turn reflating the economy by only lowering taxes as a republican and let the turn to the Dems to increase the spending.

He is insisting in breaking that pattern but he does not know that the pattern is characterised to mend itself.

Because at a certain point the dollar will go down and the US products will be much more attractive inside US and outside it, then the balance is to occur without looking for buffering outside US and the workspace would be created inside US to sustain its financial position.

When the Former Fed's Chief Governor Alan Greenspan when he was testifying about the trade gap with China, he was answering by sample word "that's in the benefit of the US prosperity" and he was the one to adopt the US strong policy to go along with several US administrations.

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