The relative tranquility in the Forex markets on Thanksgiving Thursday set the stage for a steady performance in oil prices as traders returned from the holiday. WTI oil has held near $76 per barrel, showing little reaction to the quiet movement in the US Dollar. The market's focus is now turning to a series of significant upcoming events that could introduce volatility.
Oil prices have seen a slight increase over the week, with WTI crude stabilizing around $74 after a ceasefire in Gaza eased concerns about potential disruptions in regional energy transport. As traders look ahead, next week's OPEC+ online meeting is garnering particular attention due to contentious production policies, especially opposition from Saudi Arabia regarding output quotas.
In addition to OPEC+ discussions, the international community will turn its eyes to the COP28 climate summit starting in Dubai and the LNG Summit scheduled in Athens. These meetings are expected to influence energy markets and potentially affect oil price trajectories.
Currently, WTI is trading at $76.62 per barrel, while Brent crude is valued at $81.40. Despite a significant increase in US crude reserves reported by the Energy Information Administration, amounting to 8.701 million barrels, prices have remained relatively stable without major news driving fluctuations.
Technical analysis suggests resistance for oil prices at $80, with further selling pressure anticipated around $84, which if breached could lead to revisiting fall peaks near $93. Support is identified at about $74, with potential OPEC+ interventions on the table if prices threaten to dip toward $70 or lower.
Later today, markets are bracing for a slight uptick in volatility with the release of the US Purchase Managers Index. The pricing of WTI oil continues to be influenced by a combination of factors including global demand trends, political instabilities affecting supply chains, strategic production decisions by OPEC, and the impact of USD valuation due to oil's dollar-denominated trading nature. Inventory reports from API and EIA also remain critical for guiding market expectations, where decreasing stock levels typically signal rising demand and potentially higher prices.
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