🐂 Not all bull runs are created equal. November’s AI picks include 5 stocks up +20% eachUnlock Stocks

Sterling dips as UK economy shrinks more than expected

Published 13/09/2023, 07:18
© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: UK pound coins plunge into water coloured with the European Union flag colours in this illustration picture, October 26, 2017. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/File Photo
GBP/USD
-
EUR/GBP
-

By Samuel Indyk

LONDON (Reuters) - The pound weakened against the dollar on Wednesday after Britain's economy contracted at its sharpest rate in seven months in July as strikes and poor weather weighed on output.

Sterling was down as much as 0.4% against the dollar at $1.2442, its lowest level since June 8. It was last at $1.2472.

The euro strengthened as much as 0.3% against the British pound to 86.3 pence, hitting its highest level in a month, although was last little changed at 86.08 pence.

The UK economy contracted by 0.5% in July, figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed, a worse-than-expected contraction of 0.2% and the largest drop in monthly output since December 2022.

"The decline in GDP in July suggests that underlying growth has lost momentum since earlier in the year," said Paul Dales, chief UK economist at Capital Economics. "That would make sense given that the dampening effect of higher interest rates should be starting to be felt a bit harder now."

The Bank of England has raised interest rates 14 times since December 2021, taking them to a 15-year high of 5.25%.

Money market traders are pricing in around an 80% chance policymakers will raise interest rates again at next week's meeting and a 20% chance rates will remain on hold. Pricing for the terminal rate has meanwhile come down to around 5.6% from more than 6%.

"In my view, market pricing is still over the top, but it's more in line with where it should be," said Michael Brown, analyst at TraderX.

"We are probably going to see further downside in the pound and I still don't see much reason for optimism on the UK economy going into the autumn."

The pound peaked above $1.31 in mid-July but has since fallen over 5% as the dollar, measured against a basket of currencies including the pound, has rallied to its highest level since March.

"You've got this immaculate disinflation in the U.S., with the labour market remaining strong and GDP growing by 2% every quarter," Brown said.

"I don't see any reason to bet against the dollar at the moment as the U.S. economy has everything going for it."

© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: UK pound coins plunge into water coloured with the European Union flag colours in this illustration picture, October 26, 2017. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/File Photo

Other factors also weighed on British growth in July, the ONS said, including strikes in hospitals and schools, while wet weather hurt output in retail and construction sectors.

Wednesday's data also did not include recent, substantial upward revisions to the performance of the economy up to the end of 2021.

Latest comments

Risk Disclosure: Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks.
Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed.
Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website.
It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website.
Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers.
© 2007-2024 - Fusion Media Limited. All Rights Reserved.