A new study published in the Lancet reveals that declining global fertility rates are poised to reshape global dynamics significantly in the next 25 years.
What are the current projections?
Reproduction projections by 2025 predict that three-quarters of countries are likely to dip below the population replacement verge of 2.1 births per woman.
Most developed nations maintain the replacement rate, which is the number of children a couple must have to maintain the population, at 2.1.
Variances in the global population according to varying regions
A third of the world’s total live births took place in Southeast Asia, East Asia, and Oceania.
However, now, 49 countries, predominantly situated in economically weaker areas of sub-Saharan Africa and Asia, are liable for the maximum number of new births.
Since 2011, the Sub-Saharan region has been responsible for the maximum share of live births, escalating from 8% in 1950 to almost 30% by 2021. This area experienced a milder decline in the total fertility rate, dropping from 6.94 in 1950 to 4.29 in 2021, as compared to other countries.
Only six countries are expected to maintain birth rates that replace their populations by the year 2100. These countries are Chad, Niger, and Tonga in Africa, Samoa in the Pacific islands, and Tajikistan in central Asia.
Quite a few developed countries have fertility rates significantly below the replacement level. Many major economies of the world, like China, India, and South Korea with birth rate ranking as the lowest globally at 0.82, will also see a major population decline by mid-century.
Several lower-income nations will experience a sizable increase in the proportion of new births, rising from 18% in 2021 to an estimated 35% by 2100. The study forecasts sub-Saharan Africa to contribute to half of all new births globally by the end of the century.
India’s declining population
Shockingly, India is one of the countries with a declining population rate.
Despite being the highest populous country, India has experienced a significant decrease in its fertility rate, plummeting from 6.18 in 1950 to 1.91 in 2021. Experts predict that it could decline even more to 1.3 by 2050 and 1.04 by 2100.
In the 1950s, India saw more than 1.6 million live births; and by 2024, it saw an increase of 2.24 million. Nonetheless, the country’s live birth count is expected to drop to 13 million by 2050 and decrease further to 3 million by 2100.
Economic and social implications of the declining population
Experts say that this demographic transformation is anticipated to have “profound” social, economic, environmental, and geopolitical repercussions. Housing sectors around the globe will be the most strongly affected.
Even though technological advancements will provide support, dwindling workforces in developed countries will require substantial political and fiscal intervention.
This study, funded by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, refrained from quantifying the precise economic consequences of these demographic shifts. It shed light on the contrast between high-income nations, experiencing a consistent decline in birth rates, and low-income nations where birth rates continue to rise.
The global average fertility rate, between 1950 and 2021, denoting the number of children born to a woman, weakened by more than half from 4.84 to 2.23. This was due to several countries becoming stronger economically and fewer women giving birth. More and more women joining the workforce, and governmental policies like China’s one-child policy were also majorly responsible for this declining population.
Future expectations
The total global fertility rate is expected to decline even more from 1.83 to 1.59 between 2050 and 2100.
By 2050, the fertility rate of over a third of all the countries will not be sufficient enough to maintain population growth.
The population of low-income areas worldwide is likely to nearly quadruple from 18% in 2021 to 35% by 2100.
Only four countries – South Korea, Andorra, The Bahamas, and Kuwait – will maintain a stable population replacement rate between 2021 and 2100.
By the year 2050, Puerto Rico and South Korea are anticipated to have the lowest fertility rates, of 0.84 and 0.82 respectively. However, South Korea’s birth rate is expected to remain constant at 0.82 from 2021 to 2100.
By 2100, Bhutan and Maldives will have the lowest fertility rates of 0.69 and 0.77 each.
As per U.N. predictions, the population is expected to rise from the current 8 billion to 9.7 billion by 2050, reaching a peak of about 10.4 billion in the mid-2080s.
This rapidly declining population is a significant threat to sustainable development as experts predict that by 2050, 155 out of the world’s total 204 countries and territories are predicted to have fertility rates below the replacement level.
A demographically divided world
As per the analysis conducted by The Lancet, this shift in the distribution of live births is likely to create a “demographically divided world.”
High-income countries will most likely grapple with an aging population and a dwindling workforce, whereas, low-income countries will struggle with high birth rates and limited resources.