KeyBanc Capital Markets analysts said in a note Monday that the firm's data shows investors should expect below-average Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) iPhone sales growth in F4Q23.
The analysts explained that results from the firm's August Key First Look Data indicate "slightly higher sequential sales of iPhones (+5% m/m, -5% y/y), which were above historic seasonal trends, likely reflecting an easy comp from July."
"Our data shows Aug. historically has a low delta from Jul. as consumers wait for product releases in Sep./Oct. Our KFLD shows Indexed Spending +5% m/m, slightly above the 3-yr of -1% m/m, though we believe stronger data in Aug. would likely not offset the underperformance in Jul," they added.
"In other words, our data is telling us we should expect below-average growth in F4Q23."
While KeyBanc analysts maintained an Overweight rating and $200 price target on the stock, they continue to believe demand is softening in the US with a challenged upgrade cycle.
The firm is cautious going into F4Q and notes that the weakness in domestic hardware revenue and negative sentiment around China news may pressure the stock in the near term.
The analysts also state that lowered 2H build expectations and contracting sell-through results in August are negatives for Apple suppliers such as Broadcom (NASDAQ:AVGO), Qorvo (NASDAQ:QRVO), Skyworks Solutions (NASDAQ:SWKS), and Cirrus Logic, Inc. (NASDAQ:CRUS) in the near term.