JPMorgan (JPM) supply chain analysts report that the lead time for all iPhone 15 models has decreased to below 2 weeks since early November.
Accordingly, this is suggesting a potential order cut from Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) for the iPhone 15 series in the second half of 2023 and the first half of 2024. More precisely, analysts cut their iPhone 15 series estimate by 2 million to 89 million for the second half of this year.
Despite this, the impact of the order cut is expected to be milder compared to previous weak cycles due to a smaller mix towards the iPhone 15/15 Plus and sustained demand for the iPhone 13 and 14 lineup.
Analysts at JPMorgan now model a “higher 4Q23 EMS build despite factoring in iPhone 15 order adjustment, as our previous estimates were already more bearish vs supply chain expectations.”
Moreover, analysts project a “relatively conservative 1H24 EMS build, given weaker iPhone demand with a continued iPhone 15 order cut.”
“Investors remain more focused on the Android supply chain, in our view, as restocking momentum is expected to extend into 1Q24,” the analysts said.