Proactive Investors - Indivior PLC shares have been given a price target of 2,655p by Jefferies, implying over 40% upside, after the company raised sales guidance for its Sublocade slow-release treatment for opioid addiction.
Following last month's capital markets day update for investors, analysts at the investment bank said Sublocade’s potential is “significantly greater” than their prior expectations, while the secondary listing on NASDAQ planned for spring 2023 is seen providing further support to the shares.
With the company’s guidance for peak Sublocade sales hiked to >US$1.5bn, Jefferies’ forecasts were lifted to US$1.023bn for 2026 and for peak sales of circa US$1.57bn.
This is “mainly driven by higher numbers of prescribing physicians and increasing patients per physician” as Indivior expands its sales channels and target 270,000 patients in 2030.
“The opioid addiction market has significant scope for further growth,” wrote analyst James Vane-Tempest in the note on Wednesday, noting that globally around 62mln people use opioids for non-medical purposes and over 20% who suffer get treatment.
Pointing to figures showing 89% opioid deaths in the past 12 months have involved fentanyl, the analyst said this “is likely to increase demand for both emergency treatment and Sublocade which has a blocking effect; funding is also expected to increase from opioid settlements and increasing access with higher state funds”.
Indivior has other strings to its bow, including schizophrenia treatment Perseris, where Jefferies increased its peak sales estimate from US$150mln to US$200mln, but assumed a “slow ramp” in sales.
Vane-Tempest increased the price target despite lowering expectations for the legacy Suboxone opioid treatment due to higher long-term expectations from Sublocade.
This also excludes the recent Opiant deal in the absence of guidance and as the deal has yet to close – though the analyst highlighted the acquisition’s OPNT003 drug as “a potential rescue medication for fentanyl overdose”.