Analysts at Citi said in a note Wednesday that Cocoa markets are up 150% year-on-year and 60% year-to-date to a record price range of around $6,500/t. The rise has weighed on stocks such as Hershey Foods (HSY) and Nestle.
"Spot trading could spike to $7,000-10,000/t in the next 1-3m but then fade into the NH summer," said Citi.
The Hershey Company (NYSE:HSY) shares are down 1% Wednesday, adding to the 5% decline over the last week. It is currently sitting at its lowest level since early January this year.
Meanwhile, Nestle, which is on the SIX Swiss Exchange, fell 1.7% on Wednesday and is down over 7% in the last week.
"Old-crop/new-crop curve backwardation has hit $800-1,000/t – extreme levels that should tell the industry to ration consumption and draw down product stocks," added Citi.
Even so, the bank's base case remains that cocoa terminal prices will enter a bear market by the end of 2024, off a historically rich nominal price area.